蕭全政臺灣大學:政治學研究所張瑞昌Chang, Jui-ChangJui-ChangChang2010-05-052018-06-282010-05-052018-06-282009U0001-2101200901050100http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/179407隨著冷戰終結，國際發展體系有往亞太區域轉移之勢，而中國崛起、朝鮮半島危機、美日同盟再定義、東協加三的結盟，以及反恐戰爭引爆、全球化時代的來臨，使得亞太區域的安全問題更形重要。在此同時，位處在海陸霸權交會之處的台灣，從威權體制終結進入民主化階段，並且歷經李登輝、陳水扁、馬英九三位國家領導人，這前後長達20年之久的執政，既是見證台灣經濟發展、政治民主化的過程，更是台灣因應冷戰後國際情勢大轉變的關鍵期。被視為「第三波民主化」的台灣，如何因應此一國際變局？經由民選產生的國家領導人，又是如何經營決定台灣的亞太戰略？要了解台灣20年來的亞太戰略，民主化與冷戰終結是審視此問題的觀察經緯，兩者休戚相關，缺一不可。從民主化著眼，不能忽視冷戰結束的時代背景；由冷戰後檢視，也不能省略民主化的元素。尤其民主化帶來的「去冷戰化」與「去內戰化」兩大特色，更是影響台灣國家安全戰略的走向。事實上，維持民主化台灣的存續，以及台海情勢的穩定，不僅符合美國立國的意識形態與全球戰略需求，也是確保亞太區域安全的重要基石。本文透過盱衡當前東亞錯綜複雜的戰略形勢，概要整理影響亞太區域安全的變數；繼之從民主化的角度，探討台灣在冷戰後的亞太戰略演變，以及不同領導人的決策思維、戰略布局，並從中分析可能的戰略選項，找尋台灣的生存之道。Since the end of the Cold War, the development of international system has gradually shifted towards the Asia-Pacific region. The rise of China, the crisis in the Korean Peninsula, the re-definition of US-Japan alliance, the alignment of ASEAN Plus 3, the continuing global War on Terror, and globalization, all have emphasized security issues in the Asia-Pacific region. In the same time, Taiwan, located in the bridge between maritime and continental great powers, has been democratizing from an authoritarian system. The people of Taiwan have been through three presidents-- Lee Teng-hui, Chen Shui-bian and Ma Ying-jeou since the end of Cold War. This twenty- year long period of presidencies has been witness to the process of Taiwan’s economic development and democratization, and it has also been a crucial period for Taiwan to respond to the great shift of global situation in the post-Cold War era.ow has Taiwan, as one of the examples of ‘ The Third Wave of Democratization’, met this international change? How have its popularly elected national leaders managed the decisions of Asia-Pacific strategies of Taiwan? Democratization and the end of the Cold War, as the longitude and latitude to understand the Asia-Pacific strategy of Taiwan in the past twenty years, are co-related and cannot be left without each other. Eyeing from democratization, one cannot ignore the background of the post-Cold War era; judging from the ending of the Cold War, one cannot abbreviate the factor of democratization. Particularly the two features brought about by democratization—‘de-Cold-War-ization’ and ‘de-civil-war-ization’—have been influencing the direction of Taiwan’s national security strategy.s a matter of fact, a sustainable democratized Taiwan, and a stable situation in the Taiwan Strait, is not only consistent with the ideology and global strategic demand of the US, but also the cornerstone of ensuring regional security in the Asia-Pacific. Viewing the current complicated strategic environment in East Asia, this paper first summarizes the factors affecting regional security in the Asia-Pacific. Secondly, from the angle of democratization, this paper discusses the evolution of Taiwan’s Asia-Pacific strategy in the post-Cold War era, and the thought process behind decision-making and strategic planning by different leaders. Finally, this paper analyzes possible strategic choices for Taiwan to maintain its surviv in the shifting international strategic environment.中文摘要…………………………………………………………………Ⅲ文摘要…………………………………………………………………Ⅳ一章 緒論...........1二節 文獻探討及分析架構...........3三節 研究方法及訪談對象 ...........7二章 不確定的亞太區域安全...........11一節 海陸爭霸的國際形勢 ...........12二節 中國崛起的劇烈衝擊...........21三節 美日同盟的困境與轉變...........28三章 李登輝時代－建構台灣主體論的國家安全...........39一節 民主化開啟台灣戰略新思維...........40二節 李登輝大戰略的合縱連橫...........49三節 在兩岸互動的劣勢中突圍...........58四章 陳水扁時代－追求法理台獨的戰略躍進...........69一節 確立台灣主體性的路線...........70二節 從雲端跌落谷底的台美關係...........77三節 扁政府「聯美日制中國」的東亞戰略...........82四節 迫在眉睫的邊緣化危機...........89五章 馬英九時代──兩岸和解的戰略指導原則 97一節 二次政黨輪替後的台海變局...........98二節 馬英九亞太戰略的挑戰...........104三節 2012年是兩岸攤牌的時間點...........109六章 綜合分析與前瞻...........115一節 民主化後國家領導人的戰略佈局...........116二節 美日台三方合作的可能模式...........118 三節 「西進」或「合流」的關鍵抉擇...........121四節 美中共管台海的考驗來臨...........125五節 台灣是海陸爭霸均勢的關鍵...........131考文獻 135圖目次 2-1 911之前日本防衛政策轉變說明表..........32 3-1 李登輝六階段修憲說明表...........45 4-1 兩國論與台獨相關論述比比較表...........74 6-1 民主化後國家領導人亞太戰略比較表...........116 1-1 海陸爭霸之國際體系說明圖...........2 2-1 北韓情勢發展座標圖...........14 5-1 馬英九亞太戰略「等距論」示意圖...........107 6-1「西進」或「合流」之抉擇顯示圖...........123 6-2 從民主化看台海問題路徑圖...........129application/pdf1946638 bytesapplication/pdfen-US冷戰終結第三波民主化去內戰化海陸爭霸亞太安全美日同盟崛起的中國戰略選擇End of Cold WarThird Wave of Democratizationde-civil-war-izationbid for maritime and continental negemonyAsia-Pacific SecurityUS-Japan AllianceRising ChinaStrategic Choice[SDGs]SDG8[SDGs]SDG16thesishttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/179407/1/ntu-98-P93322017-1.pdf