2017-07-012024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/685056摘要：本研究將(1) 蒐集與分析主要秋刀魚捕魚國之秋刀魚資源利用狀況與漁業動態，掌握北太平洋秋刀魚主要秋刀魚捕魚國之秋刀魚之作業漁場資訊 (空間分布)，漁獲量及相對豐度時間序列，以及相關研究調查船之豐度時間序列變動。(2) 蒐集各國生物參數進行北太平洋秋刀魚資源評估、漁獲死亡係數估計、模式敏感度分析、及進行總容許漁獲量之資源量隨機預測模擬及風險評估等，瞭解北太平洋秋刀魚資源現況，漁獲壓力，及預測未來資源變化走向，以利漁業管理者進行決策。 (3) 進行秋刀魚未來管理策略評估&nbsp;(MSE)及資源評估改進分析，改進目前資源評估方法，蒐集及彙整相關生物、海洋環境、及漁業參數，以利國內未來發展MSE架構，檢驗不同管理策略之表現。(4) 協助我國參與國際漁業管理組織 (NPFC)之資源評估與相關科學任務，計畫成果將助益國內漁政單位預先瞭解國際漁業管理措施對我國之衝擊，維護我國之漁業權益，並配合NPFC之公約提出相關科學數據或管理建議；協助我國北太平洋遠洋秋刀棒受網漁業相關產業之發展，並確保有效利用北太平洋秋刀魚資源並掌握資源變動趨勢。<br> Abstract: The stock assessment consisted of running the Bayesian state-space surplus production model for the Pacific saury in the Western North Pacific Ocean (WNPO) with the most recent summary of available fishery-dependent data. Commercial catch of Pacific saury caught by Japan, Chinese-Taipei, Korea, China, Russia and other members in the WNPO area were collected from 1950 to 2015. Relative abundance indices for WNPO saury consisted of standardized catch-per-unit effort (CPUE) of stick-held dip net fisheries from Japan (1980-2015), Chinese-Taipei (2001-2015), and Russia (2000-2015). Production models that included various time-series of data and time-varying fishery productivity will be developed for the selection of base-case. Goodness-of-fit diagnostics will be used to compare the fits of alternative model configurations. Risk analysis based on the stochastic projection of various catch levels will be conducted for the base-case model and sensitivity models. The project will collect the related biological information, fishery oceanography parameter for the development of future MSE framework in Taiwan. The results will provide to the Regional Fishery Management Origination (e.g., NPFC) as best available science for the input of fishery stock assessment and management. Part of the research results from this project will be presented as a working paper to the NPFC TWG-PSSA and SC.秋刀魚資源評估資源量隨機預測風險評估北太平洋漁業 委員會Cololabis sairastock assessmentstock stochastic projectionrisk analysisNorth Pacific Fisheries Commission