2009-03-112024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/684112摘要：颱風和梅雨所帶來的豪大雨常導致河川中下游嚴重水患，對人民的生命財產影響甚鉅。為減少受災程度，常需提前做好各項防救災準備工作；因此，淹水災害的準確預警為防救災工作之重要環節。淹水災害預警和應變有賴準確的定量降雨預報，然而，目前氣象界所研發的定量降雨預報技術，尚未特別配合淹水預警、應變之需求。本計畫之目的在配合水利署災害預警、應變作業之需求，發展颱風及梅雨季流域集水區定量降雨預報技術；此外，並於淹水災害預警應變作業期間，提供專業氣象資訊，供水利署參考。全程計畫預計三年完成，本年為第二年計畫。 在本年計畫中，將配合水利署水災應變作業之需求，針對中南部主要流域集水區，建立梅雨季定量降雨預報之中尺度氣候法。研究時，將先收集台灣地區現有梅雨季鋒面過境前後之地面降水資料，建立流域集水區梅雨季降雨氣候資料庫；並利用所收集之資料，針對中南部主要流域集水區，分析梅雨鋒面影響下之降雨特徵。根據前述之分析結果，針對台灣中、南部主要流域集水區，建立梅雨季降雨之中尺度氣候模式。其次，本計畫將於梅雨季豪雨應變和颱風警報期間，提供水利署未來天氣加值研判資訊及氣象資訊專業諮詢。此外，本計畫並於梅雨季前及颱風季後，針對水利署防災作業人員作業上的氣象資訊需求，提供氣象知識和豪雨研判分析講習。期望透過此計畫，協助水利署減少水災預警的不確定性，提昇災害應變作業之成效。 在本年計畫中，將參考目前國內之颱風降雨氣候統計法，發展可根據颱風特徵即時調整預報雨量之颱風降雨氣候模式，並根據中央氣象局所預報的颱風路徑，將其應用於流域集水區的降雨預報，以降低雨量預報誤差。其次，在梅雨季鋒面影響發生豪大雨及颱風影響台灣期間，將提供水利署未來天氣變化（尤其是降雨）加值研判資訊及氣象資訊專業諮詢，以作為災害應變作業之參考。此外，本計畫並於梅雨季前及颱風季後，針對水利署防災作業人員作業上的氣象資訊需求，提供氣象知識和豪雨研判分析講習。期望透過此計畫，協助水利署減少水災預警的不確定性，提昇災害應變作業之成效。 <br> Abstract: The heavy rainfall induced by Mei-yu fronts and typhoons often causes flood downstream which posts great threats to human life and properties. To reduce the damages caused by the flood, considerable precautions have to be taken in advance and the accurate flood warning is the first step. The accuracy of flood warning relies on the accurate quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). Unfortunately, the QPF researches conducted by the meteorological community during the past years do not really meet the need of the flood warning and emergency response operation. The purpose of this project is to develop the QPF technique for watersheds and to provide value-added meteorological information during typhoon and Mei-yu seasons to support the need of Water Resources Agency (WRA) during the flood warning and emergency response phase. The whole project will be finished in three years and this is the second year of the project. In this year, this project will develop the Mei-yu rainfall mesoscale climatology model for the major watersheds at the central-southern Taiwan to meet the need of flood warning and emergency response. First, the observed rainfall during the period when the Mei-yu front is passing Taiwan will be collected to establish the rainfall database. Second, the rainfall characteristics associated with the passage of the fronts will be analyzed using the rainfall database. According to the results, the rainfall climatology model will be developed. Besides, value-added meteorological analyses especially the rainfall tendency will be provided during the Mei-yu and typhoon periods. Training courses will be provided before the Mei-yu season and after the typhoon season to help WRA personnel to enhance their meteorological knowledge related to the flood warning and emergency response operation. By reducing the uncertainty of flood warning, we hope to enhance the efficiency of the emergency response operation.梅雨颱風流域集水區mei-yutyphoonwatershed