2007-06-302024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/682654摘要：氣候變遷是指長期氣候特性改變，並可能導致短期氣候變異加劇與極端氣候頻率增加，進而導致人類社會與自然環境災害。社會經濟發展須依賴可靠的水資源供給，但氣候變遷影響水資源甚劇，故本計畫的目標為評估氣候變遷對區域水資源供水系統所帶來可能之衝擊，並以永續利用為願景，探討強化水資源風險管理之調適能力，提出因應氣候變遷所帶來影響之策略。本計畫將選擇臺灣北部之淡水河流域作為研究區域，根據此研究區域建立起水資源系統動力模式，並藉此模式分析各項水資源管理與規劃策略之脆弱度，包含目前水資源政策以及未來可能之規劃方案；再者，結合國內外模擬未來可能之氣候變遷之預設情境，透過長期氣候預測資料和降尺度之資料轉換，並將國內未來經濟社會發展對水資源需求之可能情境納入考量，及評估氣候變遷對淡水河流域各項水資源使用所帶來之衝擊，包括地面水量與地下水量，代入水資源系統動力模式，分析探討區域水資源永續利用可能會面臨之衝擊，並探討各項調適策略之優劣，包括區域水資源調配與增加整體供水能力等；期能由模擬與最佳化分析，進而強化淡水河流域水資源彈性調配能力及水資源規劃與管理決策，藉此計畫推動並強化未來水資源規劃與管理面對氣候變遷之調適能力。本計畫之主要工作項目如下： 一、氣候變遷對水資源供水系統衝擊文獻收集與分析 二、氣候變遷對北部水資源衝擊評估 三、水資源規劃與管理之願景與因應<br> Abstract: Abstract Climate change may not only result in long-term gradually changing climate but also cause short-term higher climate variability and more extreme events. It could result in disasters to have great and certain impacts on human society and natural environment. Socioeconomic development depends on reliable water resources which however may be significantly influenced by climate change. Therefore, the purposes of this study are to assess the climate change impacts on regional water supply systems and to propose response strategies strengthening adaptive capacity to achieve sustainable water uses. The system dynamics model of a water supply system of the TanHsui river watershed will be developed to evaluate the vulnerability of the water resource policy, including current implementations and future formulations. The climate change scenarios and the downscaling method will also be concerned. Future socioeconomic development for this area will also be considered in simulating climate change impacts on the water supply system of the TanHsui river watershed, including the impacts on surface water and groundwater. By using the system dynamics model, the impacts on sustainable water resource management can be analyzed and the adaptive strategies, such as re-allocation of regional water resources and increase of water supply capacity, will also be discussed. In expectation of this study is to provide the optimal management strategies for water supply system through those simulations and optimizations. Furthermore, we hope to enhance the adaptive capacity to mitigate climate change impacts on water supply system. The followings are major tasks of this study. 1.Reviewing and analyzing related references on the topic of the climate impacts on water supply system. 2.Assessing the climate change impacts on the TanHsui river watershed. 3.Proposing vision of sustainable development and management strategies on water resources.系統動力學氣候變遷永續指標水資源system dynamicsclimate changesustainable indexwater resource