2006-05-012024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/684923摘要：本計畫主要目的在於優選農業乾旱指標與建立乾旱預警系統，系統中透過季節性（未來3個月）降雨量與溫度等氣候的預報，推估不同的需水量與計算農業乾旱指標，以評估未來發生乾旱之風險。同時本計畫擬評估季節性預報與農業乾旱指標之不確定性，以期降低乾旱預警發佈之誤差，此外，並探討如何結合風險管理之概念，評估不同之管理策略對未來乾旱之影響，並討論農業乾旱預警系統在不同地區應用之可行性。本研究結合觀測資料，並利用季節性氣候預報資料評估農業乾旱，主要效益包括 1.國內外季節性氣候預報資料收集與分析 2.農業乾旱指標優選與計算方法建立 3.季節性農業乾旱預警系統建立 4.農業乾旱風險管理機制可行性評估 5.其他區域應用可行性評估<br> Abstract: The purpose of this study is to select adequate agricultural drought indicators and to establish an agricultural drought early warning system. This study will develops methodology to calculate indicators and irrigation water demands based on seasonal climate forecasts on precipitation and temperature. This study will also assess the uncertainty due to climate forecasts and indicator calculation to reduce errors of issuing warning. Besides, this study will also focus on identifying problems in linking early warning to risk management, which can evaluate the impacts of different water resources management strategies on agricultural drought. The feasibility of applying the proposed framework to other areas will also be addressed. This study uses monitoring weather data and seasonal climate forecasts to develop an agricultural drought early warning system. The major benefits will include 1. Collection and analysis of seasonal climate forecasts 2. Selection of agricultural drought indicators 3. Development of seasonal agricultural drought early warning systems 4. Feasibility Assessment of Agricultural Drought Risk Management 5. Feasibility Assessment of Application to Other Areas農業乾旱預警風險管理水資源氣候Agricultural droughtEarly warningRisk ManagementWater resourcesClimate