薛智文Hsueh, Chih-Wen臺灣大學:資訊工程學研究所沈秉杰Shen, Bing-JieBing-JieShen2010-06-092018-07-052010-06-092018-07-052009U0001-1008200900553400http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/185404人類感染高病原性的Ａ型流行性感冒病毒，可能會致命，而Ａ型Ｈ５Ｎ１禽流感病毒最近將可能在人類間爆發傳染。我們已在電腦上實作大規模隨機性傳染病模型，模擬新型流行性感冒病毒的傳播。在模型中我們把模擬範圍設定為國家等級，包括了全國的地理行政區資料，以及官方統計的人口組成結構，並考慮了生物特性等相關因素。除了把原有的分離事件隨機模擬效能提升，我們進一步實作了各種防疫措施，可以有效率地、動態地介入模擬。這些防疫措施在實際防疫政策中扮演重要的角色，可以在疫情爆發初期即展開圍堵和緩和的策略，並精確地掌握模擬中每個週期、每個生物體的狀態。目前所有的運算皆可在桌上型電腦的運算資源中完成，我們的系統保留了彈性和擴充性，將來可以進行更大規模和更多樣性的人對人傳染病模擬。Highly pathogenic influenza A viruses are life-threatening, and avian strains of influenza virus A (H5N1) become readily transmissible among humans. Computer simulations of large-scale stochastic models to investigate the spread of a pandemic strain of influenza virus have been constructed in various previous work, including nationwide demographic data, population features, and biological factors. In this thesis, besides speeding up the previous discrete event stochastic simulations, we further implement various intervention strategies efficiently and dynamically. These intervention strategies play an important role of pandemic influenza prevention and control. Various trials including containment and mitigation have been simulated for early stage of outbreak. Great precision to the status of each individual in each period can be traced, through the simulation process using only desktop computational resources. Flexibility and scalability of our system are considered for larger simulation scale and other human-to-human transmissible infectious diseases.Approval Page icknowledgement iibstract iiihinese Abstract iiinglish Abstract ivable of Contents ivontents ivist of Figures viiiist of Tables ix Introduction 1.1 Framework 1.2 Pandemic Influenza 2.3 Structure of Thesis 3 Preliminaries 5.1 SIR Model 5.2 Model Design 6.3 Survey and Comparison 7 Data Structure 9.1 Demographic Data 9.2 Population Features 11.3 Biological Factors 11 Intervention Strategies 13.1 Available Strategies 13.1.1 Antiviral drugs 13.1.2 Vaccination 14.1.3 Social Distancing 14.1.4 Sheltering 14.1.5 Wearing Masks 14.2 Definition and Properties 15.2.1 Eliminating the Pathogenic Organism 16.2.2 Suspending the Route of Transmission 16.2.3 Increasing the Resistance of Infection 16.3 Algorithm and Complexity 18.3.1 Antiviral Drugs 19.3.2 Vaccination 21.3.3 Social Distancing 22.3.4 Sheltering 23.3.5 Wearing Masks 24 Experimental Results 25.1 Simulation of Natural Course 25.2 Validation 27.3 Experimental design 28.3.1 Antiviral Drugs 29.3.2 Vaccination 30.3.3 Social Distancing 31.3.4 Sheltering 31.3.5 Wearing Masks 31.4 Results 32.4.1 Antiviral Drugs 32.4.2 Vaccination 33.4.3 Social Distancing 34.4.4 Sheltering 35.4.5 Wearing Masks 36 Conclusion and Future Work 40.1 Conclusion 40.2 Future Work 40ibliography 42447290 bytesapplication/pdfen-US模擬傳染病流行性感冒防疫simulationinfectious diseaseinfluenzaintervention[SDGs]SDG3thesishttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/185404/1/ntu-98-R96922010-1.pdf