2011-06-092024-05-14https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/659865摘要：在氣候變遷影響下，灌溉供水系統是否仍能持續提供服務水準為重要研究課題。本研究目的在於定義灌溉供水系統之承載力，並進一步研究建立評估氣候變遷對承載力影響之方法，最後並探討如何藉由分散調適措施提高供水承載力。台灣目前有許多地區仍為直接引用河川水源之川流式灌溉系統，當氣候發生改變的情況下，會對河川可用水量產生直接影響，而河川可用水量的改變對於各個小灌區影響皆不相同，此外，各灌區可能因應措施亦不同，故在面對氣候變遷的挑戰時，應以分散性的調適策略方法進行考量，針對不同的區域採取不同的調適方法，而非以單一調適策略應用於整個區域，如此則可更彈性的面對氣候變遷的影響。故本研究先建立灌區之空間脆弱度，以凸顯每個區域於氣候變遷下可能面臨之影響及衝擊，最後透過分析整體之結果，分析不同區域可能採取之不同回應措施。此外，於衝擊評估之過程中，供水系統之分析應包含農業供水及公共用水，除了探討氣候變遷對農業用水所造成之影響外，公共用水亦可能產生改變，進而對農業可用水量產生影響，因此研究中將建立不同公共用水量之情境，以分析氣候變遷下頭前溪整體供水系統之脆弱度，並且進一步分析農業灌溉供水承載力之可能變化，提出未來可能採行之調適方法。<br> Abstract: It is an important issue whether irrigation systems can continuouslyprovide quality service under climate change conditions. The purposes ofthis study includes defining the carrying capacity of an irrigationsystem, developing assessment methods, and discussing how to developdistributed adaptive systems to strengthen carrying capacity. Thestreamflow irrigation system, which delivers water from a river directly,is still widely applied in Taiwan. The change of available streamflow mayinfluence irrigation systems. Furthermore, sub-irrigation areas may havedifferent levels of impacts and may have different adaptive measures. So,distributed adaptive strategies in sub-irrigation area should beconsidered to face the impacts of climate change. The spatialdistribution of vulnerability will be established to emphasis the impactsunder climate change and to analysis different responses in each sub-irrigationarea. Besides, the water supply system will consider bothagricultural and public water uses in this study. Different scenarios ofpublic water uses will be developed for the water supply system of theTouchien River. Then, the carrying capacity of irrigation systems can beanalyzed. At last, possible distributed adaptive strategies will beproposed in this study.氣候變遷供水承載力分散性調適策略Climate changecarrying capacitydistributed adaptive strategies