工學院: 土木工程學研究所指導教授: 郭斯傑王俊傑Wang, Jin-ChiehJin-ChiehWang2017-03-132018-07-092017-03-132018-07-092016http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/278086本研究旨在探討未來台北市房市價格趨勢預測，針對2005至2015台北市內各行政分區，雖然以往有針對台北市公佈房市均價做為分析上漲或下跌之用，但都沒有做出長期走勢分析，同時也沒有對台北市各行政區細分出結果，民眾缺乏一簡單明瞭的方式進行房價的預測與判斷。 本研究透過業界認同、且購屋民眾參考信任度最高的""住展雜誌""月刊，以其收集完整詳細的統計資料為基礎，藉由長期在股票市場中被使用來作為股價走勢分析的KD、RSI、MACD等技術指標分析原理，導入房市資料，藉由資料分析後，再依房地產以""季""為計算基礎的特性，依上述技術指標分析的公式，設計合理參數，產生各行政區從2005至2015完整十年的KD、RSI、MACD等技術線型。從中可看到因經濟基本面、金融政策的改變及政府政策的措施所產生的價格變化、買氣強弱、長期走勢的技術線型，希望提供一可信賴的房價趨勢預測平台，供主管機關及購屋民眾參考依據。 本研究結果顯示 1. 雖然影響房價因素眾多，台北市房市價格也會下修但幅度不大，在此預測平 台分析來看，時間拉長都是上漲格局。 2. 全國皆已實施實價登錄，各縣市行政區若將實價登錄資料運用在此預測平台， 將可提供房價變化給民眾參考。 3. 相同期間的投資行為，買房的穩定度會比買股票好。 4. 可避免業者、自稱學者、專家及名嘴的媒體操弄，在消費者缺乏完整資訊比較 下，誤導消費者及市場正常交易。This study attempts to investigate the future trends of housing prices in the city of Taipei. Regarding each administrative district of Taipei from 2005 to 2015, though analysis has been done for the increasing or decreasing trend of average housing prices, no analysis has been implemented for the long-term trends, nor an in-depth assessment for each administrative district of Taipei. The public lacks a simple and clear method to estimate and determine housing prices. Based on a complete and detailed collection of statistical data from ‘My Housing’ magazine, a monthly publication recognized by industry peers and deemed as the most reliable by homebuyers, as well as KD, RSI, or MACD technical index analysis theories that have been widely used to analyze stock market trends, housing market data are imported and analyzed. Reasonable parameters are then calculated on the basis of real estate industry “quarters” while using formulas of the technical index analysis methods mentioned above. This generates KD, RSI and MACD moving average results for the complete decade (2005-2015) in each administrative district. We observe in the results how economic fundamentals, changes in financial policies and implementation of government measures can influence moving average of pricing, purchase willingness, and long-term trends. We hope to provide a reliable housing trend forecast platform as a reference for the supervising administrations and homebuyers. The results of this study demonstrate the following: Despite numerous factors impacting housing prices and pricing being revised downward in Taipei on a small scale, the city has a long-term trend of increasing prices according to the analysis of this estimation platform. Changes of housing prices can be provided to the public as a reference or for the purpose of fundamental infrastructure if municipalities in the entire country register themselves to this estimation platform and submit authentic prices. Differences are found between comments in the publication by professor Zhang Jin E, showing that buying stocks is not necessarily better than purchasing real estate. Manipulation by industry peers, the so-called scholars, experts, and pundits in the media can be avoided, while preventing consumers and normal market transactions to be misled due to a lack of complete information.6424583 bytesapplication/pdf論文公開時間: 2019/7/26論文使用權限: 同意有償授權(權利金給回饋學校)房地產代銷業海悅廣告KDRSIMACDConsignment industryHi-Yes advertising inc.,MACD[SDGs]SDG11thesis10.6342/NTU201600614http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/278086/1/ntu-105-P02521705-1.pdf