許銘熙2006-07-252018-06-292006-07-252018-06-292005http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/10796本研究計畫屬於「即時洪水預報模式 之研發與應用」整合型計畫之子計畫三─ 「參數即時校正河川洪水演算模式之研發 與應用」，全程計畫為期三年，目前為第 二年。 蘭陽溪所處之蘭陽平原因地勢低窪， 夏秋之際常因梅雨季或颱風所帶來的豪雨 造成淹水災害，因此，若能提供沿岸的洪 水位剖面線及特定地點的洪水位預報資 訊，作為淹水預警之參考，將可有效減低 洪水所帶來的災害損失。故本計畫之目的 即為針對蘭陽溪的特殊地理環境及水文特 性，建立合適的參數即時校正河川洪水演 算模式。 第一年度在現地踏勘及資料蒐集後， 根據動力波理論及數值方法建立河川洪水 演算模式及潮位預報模式。 第二年度接續第一年度的研究成果， 進一步的藉由觀測水位的獲得，建立參數 即時校正河川洪水演算模式，並與各子計 畫進行模式演算成果之串聯銜接，執行整 體洪水預報模式測試工作。This project is the 3rd-subproject of the integrated project “Development of a Real-Time Forecasting Model and Its Application”. The Lan-Yang Creek basin is located in the low-lying Lan-Yang Plain, where the inundation disasters occur frequently in summers and falls because of the torrential rain. If the real-time forecast information, including the water stage at the significant locations and longitudinal profiles along the river is available before flooding, the damages would be effectively mitigated. The purpose of this study is to develop a flood routing model with real-time parameter correction for the Lan-Yang Creek. In the first year, a numerical flood routing model and tidal stage forecasting technique have been developed for the Lan-Yang Creek. According to the first year of development plans, the project establish the flood forecasting with real-time parameter correction taking the observed river stages in the second year. Besides, we cooperate with the other subprojects to examine and compare the real-time forecasting model.application/pdf519421 bytesapplication/pdfzh-TW國立臺灣大學生物環境系統工程學系暨研究所洪水預報參數校正Flood forecastingParameter correctionreporthttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/10796/1/932625Z002003.pdf