2023-03-032024-05-13https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/653119本計畫將彙整並分析全臺大地測量資料，進行地表變形強度分布範圍之劃設。本計畫同時也將透過斷層模型之建立整合測量與地質資料，推估臺灣東部地區重要區域鄰近斷層之斷層滑移虧損速率與斷層活動機率分析，並提供活動斷層地質敏感劃設之參考。本年度之工作區域為東部地區（花蓮、臺東地區），主要工作為：（1）彙整近十數年之GNSS連續站、GNSS移動站以及精密水準測量等長期觀測資料，進行資料檢核、坐標解算及時間序列分析，獲得地表水平與垂直地表速度場，進而計算應變速率場；（2）以應變速率場為基礎，整合各領域之規範與需求，訂定分級標準來繪製地表變形強度分布圖；（3）整合過去計畫工作以及近期相關文獻與研究，進行斷層幾何參數探討與分析，以三維斷層模型進行最佳斷層幾何參數搜尋與速度場反演，並推求斷層滑移虧損速率分布；最後，（4）根據斷層幾何參數之探析與斷層滑移虧損速率分布，依地動預估式與三維斷層錯位模型，推估並繪製景況地振動與同震位移分布圖。 In this project, we will analyze geodetic data to generate the surface deformation sensitive area. The dislocation model will be adopted to integrate the geodetic data with geological materials. Then the fault slip deficit rates will be inferred and used for the earthquake rupture probability estimation of major faults near the protected objects in easthern Taiwan. The working area in this year is Hualien and Taitung area. The main missions are to: (1) collect and analyze the decadal geodetic data to obtain the surface horizontal and vertical velocities and calculate the strain rates; (2) generate the surface deformation sensitive area map from a general grading criterion establishment based on the regulations of different applications; (3) evaluate the fault geometry parameters from the previous studies. Then the 3D fault model will next be adopted to estimate the fault slip deficit rates and the earthquake rupture probability. Finally, (4) the scenario shaking map and scenario coseismic displacement map will be produced through the ground motion prediction equation and slip deficit rates.大地測量;地表變形強度分布;斷層活動機率;景況地震動圖;景況同震位移圖;Geodesy; Surface Deformation Sensitive Area; Earthquake Rupture Probability; Scenario Shaking Map; Scenario Coseismic Displacement Map