2009-02-172024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/695055摘要：本計畫將配合中央氣象局颱風預警作業需求，發展適用台灣地區之鄉鎮尺度颱風降雨整合預報技術；全程計畫預計三年完成，本年為第一年。本年計畫將針對近20年之第2、3類路徑侵台颱風，應用現有動力模式進行中尺度數值模擬，模式最高解析度將設為5公里，以滿足鄉鎮尺度預報之需求；本計畫亦將合理模擬多組系集成員（ensemble members），以獲得類似環境下，不同強度和暴風半徑之颱風侵台時，全台中尺度雨量分布。其次將應用模擬結果，初步建立第2、3類型路徑侵台颱風之颱風降雨統計模式，並評估模式的預報能力。後續第二、三年計畫中，將完成鄉鎮尺度颱 風降雨之動力統計預報指引系統，並與氣象局上線之作業系統結合，同時完成建置校驗系統，以提供即時誤差評估。 <br> Abstract: The purpose of this project is to develop an integrated forecasting technique for the city/town-scale typhoon rainfall in Taiwan to support the operational need of the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) during the typhoon warning period. The whole project will take three year to complete and this is the first year of the project. In this year, all typhoons with track types 2 and 3 will be simulated using existing meso-scale dynamic models. The highest model resolution will be set at 5 km in order to meet the forecast need of the town/city scale. In addition, series ensemble runs will be accomplished to obtain meso-scale rainfall distributions for typhoons with different intensity and size under similar environmental conditions. Next, we will use model simulated results to develop a city/town-scale statistical typhoon rainfall model for typhoons with track type 2 and 3. The capability of this model will also be evaluated. In the 2nd and 3rd years, we will develop the forecast guidance for the statistical-dynamic technique to predict city/town-scale typhoon rainfall. The forecast guidance will also be integrated into the CWB operational system. In addition, an on-line real-time evaluation system will also be developed to calculate the forecast errors in the real time.鄉鎮尺度颱風降雨動力模式動力統計預報指引系統city/town-scaletyphoon rainfallmeso-scale dynamic modelhe forecast guidance for the statistical-dynamic technique