2014-08-012024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/686365摘要：颱風路徑與豪雨之預報對於預防颱風所造成之重大災害扮演了重要的角色。目前所廣泛使用的區域或全球模式並不能完整的掌握此類的極端天氣現象，對於災害預防的使用也有所盲點。本整合型計畫之重點目標為研究各種不同路徑颱風類型、颱風與季風共伴效應、颱風路徑與降雨預報跨尺度分析研究與發展與改進豪雨預報技術，並在今年加入在考慮台灣複雜地形下，如何利用物理模式或統計技術提升高空間解析度之劇烈降雨預報的技術研究。本計畫擬利用最新高解析度之全球及區域模式進行模擬與預報，並重視發展高解析度系集預報技術。透過以上模式預報技術以改進現今颱風路徑、移速、結構、暴潮和降雨的預報，並增進我們對颱風結構、颱風與季風交互作用的瞭解。本計畫也將使用位渦趨勢診斷等工具，分析豪雨對颱風移速之影響及回饋機制。同時本計畫欲將研究成果整合遙測技術與海洋暴潮模式，以提升颱風0-72小時之颱風路徑、強度預報、0~12小時之颱風極短期降雨預報技術與颱風暴潮預報，並透過發展極高空間解析度之預報統計技術與數值模擬技術，改善在台灣極複雜地形下之颱風劇烈降雨預報，以便提早做出因應對策，降低人民的生命財產與社會經濟的損失。<br> Abstract: It has been known that the forecasting of typhoon tracks and extreme rainfall plays an important role of preventing disasters caused by typhoon. However, the current regional and global models are not comprehensive enough for accurately predicting these types of weather and preventing disasters. In this integrative project, we will focus on the improvement of typhoon tracks and extreme rainfall forecasting technologies and the development of new diagnostic techniques in order to reduce the possible disasters. The objects of this research project are (1) studying the path of different types of typhoons, (2) the interactions between typhoons and monsoon, and (3) developing and improving the technology of forecasting and diagnosing of typhoon related extreme rainfall. We also integrate two new subprojects to focus on the high spatial resolution statistical forecast skill and fin-resolution numerical simulation developments of the extreme typhoon rainfall due to the very complex terrain in Taiwan. In order to archive these goals, we plan to import and to exam the newest high-resolution models of both regional and global model. By applying these models, we can (1) increasing typhoon analysis and prediction capabilities, (2) improving the understanding of typhoon structure and interactions of monsoon and typhoon, and (3) enhancing the typhoon forecasting techniques of both typhoon tracks and quantitative precipitation forecasting. Moreover, we will integrate of fine resolution numerical model, new statistical skills and ocean-storm surge model to improve forecasting of typhoon tracks and intensity from 0 to 72 hours, as well as very short-term (0 to 12 hours) forecasting technique of typhoon rainfall and storm-surge. The ultimate goal of this project is to extent the disaster warning-period and reducing the losses of people`s lives, property, and economic.颱風路徑與定量降雨預報技術發展高解析度全球與區域模式颱風極端降雨預報與診斷技術開發災害預防Developing typhoon tracks and precipitation forecasting techniquesHigh resolution global and regional modelImproving the technology of forecasting and diagnosing of typhoon extreme rainfallPreventing disasters