2012-03-272024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/695052摘要：本計畫將配合中央氣象局預報精緻化的目標，發展適用台灣地區之鄉鎮尺度颱風降雨機率與台灣附近海域風力的預報技術；全程計畫預計三年完成，本年為第一年。本年計畫將針對李（2011）所建立之颱風期間鄉鎮尺度動力統計預報指引系統中的各項預報指引，進行系統性的敏感度測試，以了解應用各項預報指引的特性與最佳使用時機，提供做為預報員進行預報作業時之參考資訊。此外，亦將利用李（2009，2010，2011）完成之動力模式控制組模擬結果的風力資訊，與實際觀測進行分析比較，並利用控制組及系集模擬結果，建立台灣附近海面風力之動力統計預報模式。<br> Abstract: The purpose of this project is to develop an integrated forecasting technique for the city/town-scale typhoon rainfall probability in Taiwan area and the sea surface wind speed near Taiwan, to help meet the goal of the operational requirement of the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) during the typhoon warning period. This is the first year of a three-year project. In this year, a systematic sensitivity test of the forecast guidance of the dynamic-statistical scheme（Lee, 2011） will be done to help understand the characteristics of each guidance and the best timing for each forecast guideline. In addition, the wind speed of the control runs of Lee （2009, 2010, 2011） will be compared with the wind observation. The output of the control runs and the ensemble runs will be used to develop a dynamic-statistical model for forecasting the surface wind speed over ocean near Taiwan.鄉鎮尺度颱風降雨雨量機率預報風力預報