櫻花吻鮭棲地水溫容忍氣候變化閥值與調適能力建構決策模式之研究

2009-08-012024-05-18https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/699549摘要：本研究目的在評估氣候變遷下櫻花 鈎 吻鮭棲地之水溫、氮、磷、 泥 砂產出量、溶氧、及流量之影響。延續過去在七家灣溪流域水溫相關研究之成功經驗，把另一個重要之棲地環境因子─ 水質納入研究中，評估氣候變遷下對各項水質參數之影響，做為棲地適用性的另一個判別依據，綜合評估所有影響櫻花鈎吻鮭生存之環境因子，除了能瞭解其面臨之潛在危機外， 更能選擇未來衝擊量最小之棲地做為域外放流之地點，並希望強化生態預警系統，使得保育工作達事半功倍之效。本研究包括長期氣候變遷與短期季節性變異，氣候變遷的預設情境，主要包含了長期氣候變遷的影響，評估氣候變遷下棲地環境因子平均特性之改變；季節性氣候預報，評估短期氣候變異對棲地之影響，並建立生態預警之機制；另外，對於極端氣候的發生，生態往往顯得不堪一擊，所以本研究特別加入極端暴雨事件及其隨後發生之洪水、泥砂產出量對棲地之影響，在時間尺度上更全面性的從長、中、短期去評估氣候變遷對櫻花鉤吻鮭棲地之影響。第一年計畫目的在水溫模式擴大運用至其他河段，及合理模擬集水區之營養鹽氮、磷及泥砂產出量；第二年則著重在合理模擬七家灣溪溶氧及建構用以評估極端降雨事件衝擊之分散式水文模式；第三年則透過氣候變遷情境的設定，全面性的探討氣候變遷下對櫻花鈎吻鮭棲地之影響，最終並完成整合水質與極端暴雨逕流於預警系統中，強化環境變遷衝擊評估與調適分析以降低櫻花鈎吻鮭棲地系統之脆弱度。<br> Abstract: The purpose of this project is to evaluate the impacts of climate change on habitat environment, including stream temperature, non-point polluted output of nutrients and sediment yields, instream dissolved oxygen, and stream flow. Based on well-experienced assessment of climate change on stream temperature, another important environment factor, water quality is involved in this project. This will be helpful for us to choose appropriate habitat for introducing Formosan Landlocked Salmon into the other creeks, since more information about future condition of habitat environment are simulated and realized. An early warning system of ecological environment will be enhanced to improve conservation strategies. This works consider long term climate change and short term seasonal climate variability. Three time scale of climate change scenarios are considered in this project. The changes of mean characteristics of habitat environment are evaluated by coupling simulation of long-term future climate conditions. Seasonal climate forecasting is utilized to evaluate the climate variability impacts on habitat. Moreover, most of sever destruction is due to extreme weather condition, such as storm event, and the following flood and sediment yield. The assessment of extreme weather condition on habitats is also discussed in this project. In this first year of this project, we’ll emphasize on the extension of applying water temperature model and reasonable simulation of output of non-point sources. In the following year, instream dissolved oxygen and establishment of distributed rainfall-runoff model are further discussed. In the last year, the impacts of climate change with different time scale on all habitat environments are evaluated. It’s important to know the relation between climate change and available habitat for Formosan Landlocked Salmon and this project will provide this information. At last, we wish to integrate the assessment of water quality and extreme rainfall runoff to the ecological early warning system, which can strengthen the abilities to assess environmental change impacts and evaluate proper adaptations to reduce vulnerability of the system of Formosan Landlocked Salmon’s habitat.氣候變遷水溫水質生態環境預警系統Climate ChangeWater TemperatureWater QualityEcological EnvironmentEarly Warning System櫻花吻鮭棲地水溫容忍氣候變化閥值與調適能力建構決策模式之研究