徐美玲2006-07-252018-06-282006-07-252018-06-282004http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/11437近年來人口的增加和工、商產業的發展，使得都市邊緣可達性較高的丘陵山坡地逐漸 轉變為茶園、果園以及住宅等，這種土地利用的轉變對生態環境的衝擊，乃集水區經營者 在進行土地規劃和管理時必須面對的考驗。由於集水區內土地利用與自然環境因素之間的 交互作用，根據過去降雨和當時集水區土地利用狀況下所產生的逕流資料進行率定所得的 經驗型水文模式，無法有效推估集水區土地利用變動後的水文反應。因此本研究擬發展一 個適於本土環境的網格式分佈型水文模式（grid-based distributed hydrological model），以期 有效預測集水區土地利用改變時，所可能導致的河川水文特性的變化。目前已經完成模式 中各相關模組的研發，包含利用DEMs 析取坡度、流向與集流面積;利用衛星影像評估土 地利用類別;結合蒙地卡羅法、最大概似法與效率係數的參數率定器;以及整合Green and Ampt 的入滲理論、Manning 地表流速公式，Darcy 定律和擴散波理論的水文演算模組。 本年度承前兩年的研究結果，選擇面積為去年研究區7 倍的陳有蘭溪內茅埔上游集水 區作為研究區，從水利署所提供的近十多年時雨量資料中，選取五場降雨事件進行參數的 率定，並以二場事件進行驗證。由於缺乏實際觀測數據可以進行參數的校正，加上集水區 內的林地面積佔了九成多，因此將全區視為均質區域進行模擬。因為集水區面積增大，為 將模擬時間控制在合理的範圍內，而降低地形的空間解析度，加上降雨資料空間解析度的 不足，以及雨量紀錄經常出現缺損，致使無法有效掌握降雨的時空分佈特性，影響流量預 測的準確度。因此本模式雖對小集水區的水文模擬可以達到不錯的結果，但是當面積加大 空間變異也跟著增大時，雖能有效地模擬出主要的洪峰型態與大致的時間，但是流量變動 的誤差可能致使其實際利用價值降低。Rapid population growth and industrial development in recent years have resulted in urban sprawl onto the peripheral slopeland and cultivation of some forested land. These land use changes have great impacts on the watershed ecosystem, and have been the major concern in watershed management. Due to the interrelationship between the use of a land and its environmental factors, effective prediction of the impact of land use change on watershed runoff can only be achieved by incorporating the actual spatial distribution of land use within a watershed. This study aims to develop a grid-based distributed hydrological model which can readily incorporate land use information derived from satellite imageries and simulate watershed hydrographs for different land use spatial patterns. The model adopts continuity equation, diffuse wave model, and the Manning’s equation for surface runoff routing, while uses the Green and Ampt infiltration theory and Darcy’s Law for subsurface runoff treatment. Uncertainty analysis incorporating Monte Carlo simulation and a Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Efficiency Coefficient is used to retrieve optimal parameter values and to estimate the confidence interval for the simulation results. The environmental data of the upper watershed of Chen-Yu-Lang River, and 5 rainfall events were used first for parameter calibration, and then 2 other storms were used to verify the results. Since the size of the study area is 6 times larger than that of the previous study area, it become necessary to lower the DEM resolution in order to facilitate the simulation at the expanse of topographic details. And as the study area increases, the variation of each hydrologic parameter increases accordingly, furthermore, inadequate rainfall data also result in poor simulation results. It is concluded that the proposed model is adequate in estimating hydrological responses in small watershed, however has shown its inadequacy for large watersheds.application/pdf659088 bytesapplication/pdfzh-TW國立臺灣大學地理環境資源學系暨研究所地理資訊系統數值地形模型分散型水文模式擴散波模式粗糙係數Green and Ampt 入滲理論Geographic Information SystemDigital Elevation ModelsDistributed Hydrological Modeldiffusive waveManning’s equationGreen and Ampt Infiltration[SDGs]SDG15reporthttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/11437/1/922621Z002005.pdf