2010-08-012024-05-18https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/698744摘要：隨著全球暖化日趨嚴重，急需瞭解暖化效應對生態系結構與功能的影響。目前觀察到最值得注意的效應是生物的分佈（範圍或中心）朝高緯度與高海拔方向移動。在生物氣候學的研究中也觀察到候鳥提早遷徙，以及春季藻華提早的現象。然而，目前這些調查僅針對物種的時空分佈，尚未探討暖化效應對個體的影響（比方說體型大小）。體型大小是基礎的生物特性，會隨許多生態性質（如豐度、成長、生殖力、死亡率與交互作用）而變化，但是目前探討暖化對個體大小影響的研究卻出乎意料的少。 過去研究提出三項生態法則來探討體型大小和溫度的關係。第一「伯格曼法則」（Bergmann’s rule），溫暖地區居住的物種以小體型居多。第二「詹姆斯法則」（James’ rule）：同樣物種的生物在溫暖地區的體型會比較小。第三「溫度體型法則」（temperature-size rule）：外溫性生物的個體大小會隨溫度升高而減小。若這些法則具有普遍性，我們預期在群聚與族群的層級上，會看到全球暖化導致生物體型變小的效應。 本研究計畫探討暖化對生態系的體型變動的影響，將以水生生態系為主，因為水體具有良好的溫度緩衝效果，因此溫度的短期變異不會像陸域系統那麼大。主要以浮游生物為研究材料，因為他們容易採集，而且生命週期短，得以在一定時間內偵測到改變。我們將從三個方向收集資料：（1）分析現有資料庫中可用資料；（2）在文獻中，尋找資料與統合分析；（3）野外採樣。 資料庫資料：主要針對浮游生物的時間序列資料。將會收集長時間浮游生物的體型分佈（包含群聚與族群層級），從而進行上述假設之測試，觀察平均體型是否會隨溫度增加而減少，或是小體型的生物的比例會隨之增加。目前我們已經有日本琵琶湖（Lake Biwa）的長期隔週採樣之浮游生物時間序列資料（超過二十五年），並計畫和日本滋賀大學（Shiga Prefecture University）的教授（Syuhei Ban）合作，用保存的樣本建構琵琶湖的浮游動物時間序列資料庫（超過四十年）。目前正在準備進行一個國際合作計畫，將會和地中海與日內瓦湖（歐洲）、華盛頓湖（美國）和貝加爾湖（俄國）等其他團隊合作，進行比較研究。 文獻統合分析：將從發表的文獻上彙整浮游生物體型大小的資料，調查他們對溫度的變化。 野外採樣：將會採集東海中不同溫度區的浮游生物樣本，檢視其體型大小分佈對應溫度的關係。雖然採樣的時間還沒有長到足以探討氣候效應，但在假設整個系統具有各態歷性（ergodic），如此便可用空間來代替時間，這些（不同溫度條件下）採集的樣本依舊可用來探討溫度效應。在此統計分析中，也會考量營養鹽的效應，因為營養鹽同樣影響到浮游生物體型的分佈大小。 <br> Abstract: Understanding of climate warming effects on ecosystems structures and functions is a pressing concern. The most notable thermo effect is shifting organisms’ distribution (range and/or center) toward higher latitudes and altitudes. Another important observation is change in phenology, for example, earlier arrival of migratory birds or earlier spring blooms. Those investigations focused on spatial and temporal distribution of species thus far. However, we lack understanding of thermo effects on the body of individual organisms (such as body size). Body size is a fundamental biological characteristic that scale with many ecological properties (such as abundance, growth, fecundity, mortality, and interactions). Surprisingly, limited effort has been devoted to investigating warming impacts on body size of organisms. Three ecological rules were proposed to relate body size with temperature. First, Bergmann’s rule states that warm regions tend to be inhabited by small-sized species. Second, James’ rule states that populations with smaller body size are found in warmer environment for the same species. Third, the temperature-size rule states that the individual size of ectotherms tents to decrease with increasing temperature. If these rules are general, we anticipate seeing that climate warming caused organisms in ecosystems to shift toward smaller body size at both community and population levels. We propose to investigate warming effects on size dynamics of ecosystems. We focus on aquatic systems because water is a perfect buffer for heat and thus short-term variability in temperature is less pronounced than terrestrial systems. We concentrate on planktonic organisms, because plankton are easy to sample and their generation time is short, allowing us to detect changes in reasonable time duration. We aim to carry out our research using three approaches: 1) data mining based on existing databases, 2) literature survey and metaanalysis, and 3) field sampling. Data mining: we focuses on examining time series data of plankton. Specifically, we will calculate size distribution of plankton (at both community and population levels) through time and test whether the average size decreased and/or the proportion of smaller organisms increased with increasing temperature. We have assembled biweekly time series phytoplankton as well as environmental data (>25 year) collected in Lake Biwa, Japan. In addition, we cooperate with Prof. Syuhei Ban (Shiga Prefecture University, Japan) to construct time series of zooplankton (>40 years) from the same lake, using archived samples. Furthermore, we are in the progress of an international project for a comparative study with groups from Mediterranean Sea and Lake Geneva (Europe), Lake Washington (USA), and Lake Baikal (Russia). Literature metaanalysis: we will compile size data of planktonic organisms from published literature and investigate how they changed in response to temperature. Field sampling: we will sample plankton in the East China Sea across different temperature regimes. We will examine the size distribution of plankton in response to temperature. Although our sampling will not be long enough to investigate climate effects, our samples (across a wide spectrum of temperature conditions) can still be used to investigate temperature effects, assuming that the system is ergodic and thus we can use space to represent time. We shall statistically account for the nutrient effects in analyses because nutrient conditions may also affects size distribution of plankton.個體大小熱效應資料分析整合分析浮游生物Sizethermo effectsdata miningmetaanalysisplankton collection