2016-08-012024-05-13https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/651990摘要：本計畫試圖建構一個有兩部門(formal and informal sectors)且生育和教育選擇為內生的一般均衡跨期疊代模型。本模型將用來研究開發中國家的財政和人口政策。有鑑於開發中國家常見大規模的地下經濟，本計畫特殊之處在於，理論模型將地下經濟部門(informal sector)納入考慮。模型中，除生育和教育決策外，個人分配在兩部門的工作時間亦為內生。因泰國現今生育率低，即將邁入高齡化社會，且有超過60%以上的勞工在地下經濟部門工作，因此，本計畫將用泰國當作一個例子做數值模擬分析。本計畫將在「存在大規模地下經濟部門的高齡化社會」的架構下，探討(1)人口老化對政府財政和經濟表現的影響;(2)人口政策和財政政策對課稅的影響;(3)教育補貼的影響。<br> Abstract: This project attempts to develop a two-sector general-equilibrium overlapping generations (OLG) model with endogenous fertility and education choices to investigate fiscal and population policies in an emerging economy. In particular, the existence of large informal employment, as a distinct feature in developing economies, is considered. With the existence of informal sectors, individuals further choose labor allocation between formal and informal sectors. In the project, Thailand will be used as a representative for calibration and quantitative analysis because it has a low fertility rate (1.5) and a large informal sector (> 60% of workers). First, we investigate the impacts of aging on government financing and economic performance. Second, population policies and fiscal policies on taxation in the aging economy with informal employment will be discussed. Finally, various education subsidies will be explored.人口老化地下經濟人口政策population aginginformal sectorpopulation policy