2002-08-012024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/679046摘要：本計畫為“颱風伴隨強風與豪雨之觀測與預報技術發展”整合計畫之第四子計畫。計畫研究重點為針對與東北季風或鋒面環流共伴而導致台灣北部地區豪雨的颱風個案，分析其氣候特性、路徑特徵、綜觀天氣型態與伴隨降雨分佈特徵，並透過中尺度數值模擬與模擬結果之診斷分析，探討導致北部地區豪雨之物理機制；最後則綜合資料分析與數值模擬結果之診斷分析，歸納在不同綜觀天氣型態／颱風路徑下，導致北部地區出現豪雨的氣象條件與初步預報指引。全程計畫預計三年完成，本計畫為第二年計畫。 在第一年研究中，已搜集、整理1986~2000年間，因颱風與東北季風／鋒面共伴導致北部地區豪雨之歷史個案，統計其氣候特性、颱風路徑特徵與伴隨降雨分佈。此外，針對1987年侵台之琳恩颱風，完成MM5數值模式之測試與初始虛擬渦旋植入工作，並開始進行颱風侵台時之數值模擬工作。 本年中將繼續第一年工作，完成琳恩颱風侵台過程之數值模擬工作（包含控制組實驗與各種對照組實驗），並利用模擬結果進行診斷分析。其次，將比對分析控制組與對照組實驗之診斷分析結果，探討琳恩颱風個案中，導致台灣北部地區豪雨的物理機制。最後，將針對2000侵台的象神颱風，開始進行類似之<br> Abstract: This is the 4th sub-project of the mission-oriented project “ The observation and the development of forecast technique of strong winds and torrential rains associated with typhoon”. Focus of this study is on the analysis and numerical simulation of those typhoons, with northeasterly monsoon or front that caused torrential rain at the northern Taiwan. The analysis will include the climatological aspect, the tracks, the synoptic environments and the rainfall distributions associated with these typhoons. In addition, the diagnostic analysis based on the numerical simulation results will be performed to discuss the physical processes leading the torrential rain. Finally, the meteorological conditions leading to the torrential rain at the northern Taiwan, under different synoptic conditions or typhoon tracks will be summarized based on the results of data analysis and numerical simulation. The forecasting rules for the occurrence of torrential rain at northern Taiwan will also be proposed. It will take three years to complete the whole project and this is the second year of the project. In the year of the project, we have collected all the historical typhoons in 1986~2000, with northeasterly monsoons or front that caused torrential rain at the northern Taiwan. The climatological aspect, the track patterns and the rainfall distributions associated with these typhoons have been analyzed. In addition, we have finished the model test run and initial vortex bogusing for typhoon Lynn(1987) using MM5. The numerical simulation of typhoon Lynn when it passed the vicinity of Taiwan is currently undergoing. In the second year of the project, we will continue to finish the numerical simulation of typhoon Lynn (including the control run and difference test runs). The results of all numerical experiments will be analyzed and compared. The physical processes leading to the torrential rain in northern Taiwan associated with typhoon Lynn will be synthesized based on the results of data analysis and model simulation. Finally, we will start similar analysis and numerical simulation for typhoon Xangsane(2000). In the third year of the project, we will finish the numerical simulation and analysis of Xangsane. The guidance for forecasting the torrential rain at the northern, Taiwan under the influence of typhoon and northeastly monsoon/front will be proposed.颱風颱風登陸豪雨數值模擬TyphoonTyphoon LandfallTorrential RainNumerical Simulation