2015-08-012024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/677592摘要：強烈對流系統碰到台灣的中央山脈陡峭地形經常引發土石流，使得橋樑損壞、建築崩塌及 水庫淤積等，造成嚴重的複合型災害。本計畫擬研究劇烈天氣（颱風或梅雨鋒面帶上的中尺度 對流系統）的降水物理過程，透過高解析度WRF 模式之數值模擬實驗，探討中央山脈如何改變 或是加強對流系統內的降水物理過程，以及探討強對流系統的降水效率如何受到台灣地形影響 等科學議題。第一年本計畫將以莫拉克(2009)颱風為主要研究個案，針對WRF 模式模擬結果進 行診斷分析及數值敏感度實驗，探討台灣地形如何改變莫拉克颱風的雲微物理過程，進而瞭解 造成莫拉克颱風於高屏山區破紀錄豪雨（3 天累積雨量超過2700 mm）的主要雲微物理機制。第 二年則比較WRF 模式中單矩量方案（僅預報降水粒子質量混合比）及雙矩量(two-moment)方案 （預報降水粒子質量混合比及粒徑譜），對於颱風降水模擬結果的不同；期望透過系統性的比較 分析，進而發展出最適合應用於台灣地區登陸颱風降水模擬的雲微物理參數化方案。第三年本 計畫將延伸前兩年的研究經驗至梅雨鋒面的中尺度對流系統，比較WRF 模式中單矩量方案及雙 矩量方案對於中尺度對流系統之對流降水與層狀降水區域模擬結果的不同，進而發展出最適合 應用於台灣地區梅雨鋒面之中尺度對流系統模擬的雲微物理參數化方案。<br> Abstract: Strong convective systems often induce fresh floods and mudslides over the Taiwan area, causing bridge collapse and building breakdown, which result in tremendous economical and property damages. This proposal will investigate the precipitation physical processes of strong convective systems (typhoons and/or mesoscale convective systems), by using the high-resolution WRF model simulations. The scientific issues are to understand how the Taiwan Central Mountain Range modifies the microphysical processes within the convective storms and to investigate how the precipitation efficiencies within the convective storms are changed by the terrain effects. In the first year, this project will choose Typhoon Morakot (2009) as the target typhoon case to investigate how the steep Taiwan topography modifies the microphysical processes by conducting the control and terrain sensitivity simulations with the high-resolution WRF model. The essential microphysical processes responsible for the record-breaking extreme rainfall (more than 2700 mm in 3 days) will be examined. In the second year, the project will conduct systematic comparisons between the single-moment (predicting only the mass mixing ratio) and two-moment microphysics schemes (predicting both the mass mixing ratio and the hydrometeor number concentration) for typhoon simulations. In the third year, this project will extend the experience gained from the typhoon system to the mesoscale convective systems embedded in Mei-Yu fronts. In particular, we will compare the precipitation simulation difference between the WRF runs with the single-moment and two-moment microphysics schemes. Through systematic comparisons and detailed analyses, this proposal is aimed to find out the optimal microphysics parameterization scheme which is most appropriate for the precipitation simulations of convective storms typhoons over the Taiwan area.颱風豪雨雲微物理過程雲微物理參數化方案typhoonheavy rainfallmicrophysical processesmicrophysics scheme