唐代彪De- Piao Tang, PhD臺灣大學:國家發展研究所王鈺婷Yu-Ting, WangWangYu-Ting2010-05-052018-06-282010-05-052018-06-282008U0001-2907200809522900http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/180190民主政治發展過程中，選舉活動成為人民直接參與的政治活動之一，民眾透過選舉與投票而完成政治參與的行為。近年來台灣地區選舉活動頻繁，因此對於選民之投票行為研究，更為政治學者所重視。往學者對臺灣立法委員選舉之研究，多著重於選民投票行為之研究，故過去之研究較少由空間觀點切入。然而投票行為的地域差異，早已被人注意，本文主要採空間自相關空間分析理論，以台灣、澎湖356 個鄉鎮為研究單元，第三屆至第七屆立委選舉（1994年至2008年）為時間軸，進行藍綠版圖之空間分布與變遷之實證分析。Moran’s I 指數的檢驗，證實藍綠陣營之獲票率、以及獲票率之變化是呈現空間聚集現象。另外，在傳統迴歸模型中之誤差項具有地域差異，顯現空間異質性的存在；透過空間迴歸模型，在控制了性別、年齡、教育、就業、族群等社會因素後，鄰近的選民仍會互相影響，證明空間相依性的支配力。本文希望藉由空間分析方法，能提出研究發現並做出檢討與建議。In the development of democracy, the election campaigns have become one of the political activities that people participate in directly. People fulfill their political involvements through elections and voting. Recently, there are more and more political activities in Taiwan; therefore, the studies of the voting behaviors are highly valued. patial perspectives of elections were seldom applied to the study of voting behavior in Taiwan. However, the regional differentiation of voting behavior had generally attracted researchers’ attention. This thesis applies spatial econometric analysis to analyze spatial distribution and political changes of pan-blue and pan-green parties during the period 1994 – 2008 based on the data collected from 358 administrative units in Taiwan.oran’s I statistic is employed in this study to measure the spatial association of the Legislative Elections in Taiwan .We found that residuals in the classical regression model exhibited regional differentiation which indicates spatial heterogeneity. Voters can still be affected from the neighborhood effect, even some social factors such as gender, age, education, employment and ethnicity have been controlled. After the spatial analysis of the Legislative Elections in Taiwan, this research will give some evaluations and suggestions.摘要..............................iiibstract..............................iv一章　緒論..............................1一節　研究動機..............................1二節　研究目的..............................2三節　分析架構..............................4四節　研究方法與限制..............................8五節　研究流程..............................10二章　文獻探討..............................13一節　政治版圖之研究..............................13二節 以空間分析觀點研究投票行為..............................17三節　小結..............................24三章　研究方法設計..............................26一節　空間計量分析..............................26二節　空間迴歸模型..............................32四章　第三屆至第七屆立委選舉之空間探索..............................37一節　第三屆至第七屆立委選舉的空間特性..............................37 二節　各陣營獲票率消長的空間特性..............................54五章 空間迴歸分析..............................67一節　藍綠版圖穩定度分析..............................67二節　泛綠陣營增加率..............................86 三節　結果分析..............................96六章 結論..............................100考文獻..............................104錄..............................112application/pdf4882400 bytesapplication/pdfen-US立委選舉政黨版圖空間分析空間自相關空間迴歸模型legislative electionspolitical geographyspatial analysisspatial autocorrelationspatial regression modelthesishttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/180190/1/ntu-97-P95341013-1.pdf