Department of Social Work, National Taiwan University, Taiwan; Department of Sociology, National Taiwan University; Graduate Institute of National Development, National Taiwan University, Taiwan; Department of Sociology, National Chengchi University, Taiwan; Department of Social Work, National Taiwan University, Taiwan; Department of Sociology, National Taipei University, Taiwan.國立臺灣大學社工系; 國立臺灣大學社會系; 國立臺灣大學國發所; 國立政治大學社會學系; 國立臺灣大學社工系; 國立臺北大學社會系Wang, Yun-tungYun-tungWangHsueh, James Cherng-tayJames Cherng-tayHsuehTeng, Chih-sungChih-sungTengChen, Hsin-muHsin-muChenYang, Pei-shanPei-shanYangChan, Ching-enChing-enChan王雲東薛承泰鄧志松陳信木楊培珊詹慶恩2017-09-072018-06-282017-09-072018-06-282012http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/281551http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/281551/1/0025_201206_2.pdfAims: This study uses databases and hypotheses to project the population in Taiwan who are likely toneed long-term care services in the near future (including disabled people and people with dementia), and the number of care workers required providing such services. This study also presents findings by Geographic Information System (GIS), and gives some suggestions for long-term care insurance policy-making. Methods: This study uses the prevalence method in projecting the population who will likely need long-term care services. A demand-based approach is used for the projection of the caring hours and amounts of care workers required. Results: Based on the projection of this study, there will be 347,548 people (1.49% of total population) with at least one ADL in 2011 in Taiwan. Among them, there will be 229,491 people aged 65 and above (9.00% of this sub-population). Including the population with only IADL and dementia, there will be 610,768 people (occupying 2.62% of total population) with long-term care needs in 2011 in Taiwan. In addition, the female elderly population with long term care needs exceeds the male population, and the difference between these two will keep increasing in the near future. Furthermore, based on GIS analysis, the amount of care workers will become insufficient nationwide in many areas, yet foreign care workers could serve within the long-term care system to make up this shortfall. Implications: This study gives four suggestions: (1) An increase in domestic care workers in some regions by the establishment of a long-term care services network having some incentives is necessary; (2) Construction of an integrated and comprehensive long-term care database will assist in confirming the mechanism of communication and policy-making for the different ministries affecting the long-term care field; (3) Increasing the foreign care worker involvement in the long-term care system, and implementing prevocational training regulations for them, should be addressed by articles of law related to the long-term care field, and (4) The establishment of vocational training regulations, and a license/certificate renewing mechanism for domestic/foreign care workers should be initiated immediately.研究目的：一、透過現有資料庫及設定若干假設以進行長照（潛在）需求人口（包括失能與失智者）及照顧服務員人力的推估。二、透過地理資訊系統將上述研究結果，進行空間面向的呈現與分析，並提出具體建議，以作為我國規劃長照保險政策之重要參考。研究方法：本研究採用盛行率法進行對未來長照（潛在）需求人口的推估，同時對於未來照顧服務需求時數與照顧服務員人力的推估，採用「以需求為基礎的估算法」進行。研究結果：一、根據本研究推估，在2011年全國所有年齡層一項以上ADL的人數為347,548 人（1.49%），其中65 歲以上者占 229,491人（9.00%）；若加上僅IADL 與僅失智者， 則 全國所有年齡層長照潛在需求人 數 更 將 上 升 至610 ,768人（2.62%）。二、高 齡女性的長照潛在需求人數超過男性，且隨著時間的推移，差距 將持續拉 大。三、照顧服務員人力推估呈現不足與不均的現象；但若是能將外籍看護工整合納入長照系統，則全國總共的照顧服務人力應可足夠。未來建議：一、透過長照服務網的建置與若干獎勵／鼓勵措施，讓照服員人力不足的地區能優先發展起來。二、儘速建置完整的長照資料庫，並確立跨部會管理的機制。三、儘速將外籍看護工整合納入長照系統，並將職前訓練規定納入相關法規中。四、儘速建立照服員與未來納入長照系統外籍看護工的在職訓練、定期證照檢覈等專業資格規範制度。本研究探用1990年普查資料百分之一隨機樣本，推估出台灣地區的單親戶約佔全部普通住戶(但括單人戶)的3.9％，將近20萬戶，而男女單親比為四比六。若只考慮戶中有未成年兒童，那麼台灣地區單親戶約佔6.5％；也就是說，在有未成年兒童的家庭中，每十五戶約有一戶是單親戶。在另一方面，若以「人」為單位，所推估出「單親兒童」的數量則為三十五萬餘人，佔十八歲以下兒童的5.4％，即大約每十八個兒童有一個和單親同住。若單從上述比例來看，1990年台灣單親家庭並不如西方社會普遍；然而，從普查資料中所顯示的單親，必須已是具備離婚、喪偶、或未婚的身份，並且有「十八歲以下未婚子女」同住。因此，對於夫妻因工作關係分居之「暫時單親」，或有夫妻之名而無夫妻之實的「準單親」，都不在計算立內；所以上述的數字在現實生活中，都應該是「下限」。 至於單親戶的分佈，若從單親戶佔該縣市總戶數的比例來看，以台東縣、花蓮縣、屏東縣為最高，以苗栗縣、嘉義縣、台北市為最低。若以絕對數字來比較，以台北縣、台北市、和高雄市為最多，而澎湖縣、嘉義市、苗栗縣為最少。有關單觀的特性，整體來說，離婚單親為最多(佔58%)、喪偶單親其次(佔38%)、未婚單親最少(佔4％)；其中男單親以離婚為最多，但是在女單親中，喪偶和離婚者比例接近。此外，「目前有工作」的單親有70.6%，沒有作者佔29.4%，其中男單親有工作者比女單親有工作者高出21％。最後關於單親兒童，本研究發現平均每個單親戶有1.84個「十八歲以下未婚子女」同住，這些「單親兒童」的男女性別比差不多是各佔一半。30736438 bytesapplication/pdf失能失智長期照護服務推估照顧服務員journal article10.6171/ntuswr2012.25.026701677535http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/281551/1/0025_201206_2.pdf