蘇明道臺灣大學:生物環境系統工程學研究所潘麒帆Pan, Chi-FangChi-FangPan2010-05-052018-06-292010-05-052018-06-292008U0001-2201200814292500http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/181097台灣的地理位置處於太平洋與亞洲大陸的交界地帶，因海島地形、緯度與季風因素，容易遭受如颱風和暴雨而導致的水災。面對因洪災不斷造成的經濟損失，政府能提供應付的臨時緊急重大事項經費卻十分有限，因此本研究探討在面臨淹水風險災害時，如何利用保險的分散和移轉風險功能，引進民間保險業者和資本市場支援，提高民眾保險意願，建立有效的淹水保險制度，除了減輕政府的洪災風險，降低國家整體經濟損失之外，也可讓民眾有一定程度的洪災保障，並使災後的復建能夠迅速進行。 本研究以二維零慣性漫地流模式與雨水下水道模式模擬汐止地區年平均淹水深度，以此作為淹水風險潛勢評估標準，使用Natural-Break與自訂方式決定不同等級之淹水風險，再以路網與村里形成之區域為依據進行淹水風險分區，各分區住戶負擔各自區域淹水風險。同時設定各種淹水保險模擬情境，改變一樓住戶與二樓以上住戶負擔保費比例，導入以電話訪查獲得之淹水保險意願曲線，觀察在各種情境下能得到的意願保險住戶與可收得之保費，並將不分區、不分級的情況比較之。 模擬顯示，投保意願住戶以Natural-Break在分級分區下，一樓住戶負擔保費為二樓以上住戶之兩倍為最多，共有20977戶；同樣情境下之自訂分級之投保意願住戶有20920戶；不分區則有19202戶。顯示對不同淹水風險等級區域進行空間上的分區，以各分區淹水損失由各分區住戶自行負擔其淹水損失為原則，依樓高進行住戶分級，在一定程度上能夠提高人民保險意願，協助建立淹水保險。唯效果並不十分顯著，可建立其他指標判定個別區域適合之初始淹水風險指標分級，並建立更精確之淹水保險意願曲線，應能得到更完善之淹水保險分級分區制度。Situated at the border area between the Asia Continent and the Pacific Ocean, Taiwan is conducive to floods brought by typhoons and rainstorms because of its insular topography, latitude and monsoon climate. While floods have constantly been damaging the economy, the government can only provide a quite limited expenditure on emergencies. Therefore, the present research probes into the ways in which we can take advantage of the functions of risk segregation and transfer of insurance while facing flood hazards, so as to introduce the support of civil insurance companies and capital markets, to enhance citizens’ willingness to carry insurance, and to establish an effective flood insurance system. In this way, the flood risks of the government and the overall economic loss of the country can be reduced. The present research simulates the average annual flooding depth of Shi-Jr District, so as to establish an assessment standard for the potential of flood hazard. Besides, Natural-Break and manual methods are utilised to determine the different levels of flood hazards, and areas formed by roads and villages are used as the basis for flood hazard zoning, in which the residents respectively burden different flood hazards in different zones. Meanwhile, after setting up various simulated conditions for flood insurance and changing the proportions of insurance fee that first-floor residents and residents above the second floor should pay, this research also adopts a curve of the willingness to participate in flood insurance obtained by phone surveys, so as to observe the number of residents willing to assume insurance and the amount of insurance fee thus collected under various circumstances. According to the simulation, in a condition where the zoning and risk classification are done with Natural-Break and where the first-floor residents burden twice the insurance fee than residents above the second floor, there are most residents willing to assume insurance; the number of such residents is 20,977. Under the same circumstance except that the risk classification becomes manual, there are 20,920 residents willing to carry insurance. In situations without zoning, there are 19,202 such residents. As the simulation shows, citizens’ willingness to participate in insurance and assist in establishing a flood insurance system can be enhanced to a certain degree as areas with different levels of flood hazards are zoned spatially. However, the effects would not be too remarkable merely in this way. A more completed system for the zoning and classification of flood insurance can be achieved by establishing other index to judge the primary classifying index of flood hazards suitable for individual areas.目 錄誌 Ⅰ文摘要 Ⅱ文摘要 Ⅲ錄 Ⅳ目錄 Ⅵ目錄 Ⅷ一章 前言 1-1研究背景 1-2研究目的 2-3研究流程 3二章 文獻回顧 5-1颱風洪水淹水損失及推估方法 5-2風險管理 8-3保險原則 9-4巨災保險概念 10-5風險分級 10三章 資料蒐集 12-1研究區域 12-2淹水潛勢 17-3住戶資料 17-4保費意願 21四章 淹水風險評估 24-1淹水損失推估 24-2年平均淹水損失 27-3總淹水損失 27-4風險指標 29五章 淹水風險分級分區 31-1風險指標分級 31-2分群分析 35-3行政區域劃分 49-4行政分區結果 50六章 風險分區效能評估 54-1情境模擬 54-2投保意願 57七章 結論與建議 61-1結果討論 61-2結論 61-3未來研究建議 62考文獻 63目錄1-1 研究流程圖 32-1 歷史淹水深度-損失曲線 62-2 淹水深度-淹水損失關係曲線 83-1 汐止村里圖 123-2 研究區域內不同之淹水深度分佈圖 133-3 水利用地 153-4 軍事用地、礦業用地、交通用地 163-5 農業用地、工業用地 163-6 扣除非居住區域之研究區域 173-7 淹水區域住戶分佈 183-8 福安里實際建物圖 203-9 福安里建築用地分佈 213-10 保險意願累積曲線 234-1 AAFL示意圖 244-2 淹水損失-深度曲線 254-3 各淹水重現期淹水損失 264-4 淹水損失-超越機率曲線 274-5 年平均淹水損失分佈 284-6 網格內住戶數分佈 284-7 淹水深度-超越機率曲線 294-8 研究區域年平均淹水深度分佈 305-1 台北村里人口密度分佈_ Natural-Break 315-2 台北村里人口密度分佈_ Equal-Interval 325-3 台北村里人口密度分佈_ Quantile 325-4 台北村里人口密度分佈_ Standard- Deviation 335-5 年平均淹水風險(Natural-Break) 345-6 年平均淹水風險(自訂分級) 355-7 淹水風險分級(Natural-Break) 365-8 淹水風險分級(自訂分級) 375-9 階層聚落法 385-10 NNH範例 385-11 各風險指標等級NNH分群分析(Natural-Break) 395-12 各風險指標等級NNH分群分析(自訂分級) 405-13 NNH分群分析(Natural-Break) 415-14 NNH分群分析(自訂分級) 425-15 分群交疊判斷 435-16 NNH與零星資料網格(Natural-Break) 445-17 零星資料點歸類 455-18 NNH結果(Natural-Break) 465-19 NNH結果(自訂分級) 475-20 行政分區 495-21 MMU示意 505-22 行政分區劃分 505-23 行政分區結果(Natural-Break) 515-24 行政分區結果(自訂分級) 526-1 住戶分區圖(Natural-Break) 556-2 住戶分區圖(自訂分級) 55目錄3-1 村里住戶分佈 193-2 保費與保險意願 225-1 分群後錯誤率(Natural-Break) 485-2 分群後錯誤率(自訂分級) 485-3 錯誤率(Natural-Break) 535-4 錯誤率(自訂分級) 536-1 分級分區示意 546-2 分區住戶分佈(Natural-Break) 566-3 分區住戶分佈(自訂分級) 566-4 風險分攤金額(Natural-Break) 566-5 風險分攤金額(自訂分級) 566-6 各情境風險分攤與意願投保戶數(Natural-Break) 58 6-7 各情境風險分攤與意願投保戶數(自訂分級) 586-8 保費累積意願下所收總保費與住戶(Natural-Break) 596-9 保費累積意願下所收總保費與住戶(自訂分級) 59application/pdf2137712 bytesapplication/pdfen-US淹水風險保險分區分級淹水損失flood riskinsuranceclassificationzoningflood hazard[SDGs]SDG13thesishttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/181097/1/ntu-97-R94622010-1.pdf