指導教授：游景雲臺灣大學：土木工程學研究所許哲明Hsu, Che-MingChe-MingHsu2014-11-252018-07-092014-11-252018-07-092014http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/260794水，是世界上一切生命不可缺少的資源。現今，在面對各種氣候和社會經濟挑戰下，以水為基礎的資源管理成為一個顯著的問題，且鑒於自然和水文過程之不確定性，使我們對於複雜、高效率水資源管理實踐，變得更加困難。因此有效的風險分擔機制，成為解決用水短缺或洪水的關鍵。本研究旨在探討風險分擔機制於水資源管理的概念與應用。故本研究開發了一個概念模式，討論兩個與水有關的異構利益相關者的風險承擔行為。基於風險分擔的理論，本研究將藉由模擬，釐清這不確定情形下之結果。透過檢視各利益相關方的獲利與損失，本研究試圖提供一個基於風險下，更好的決策與政策制定過程。對於有限資源分配問題能有更好解答，提供兩個利益相關者一個公平、合理、互利的解決方案。透過此種方式，決策者可以透過增進水資源相關公部門的管理效率來增進社會大眾之福祉。Water is an essential resource for all forms of life in the world. Facing various climate and social-economic challenges, the management of water-based resources becomes a significant issue nowadays. However, the inherent uncertainty of nature and hydrological processes could complicate the practices of efficient water resources management. Efficient risk sharing mechanism is critical for dealing with water shortages or flood. This study aims to investigate the concept and application of risk sharing mechanism of in water resources management. The study develops a conceptual model to discuss the risk taking behavior of two heterogeneous water-related stakeholders. Based on the theory of risk-sharing, the simulation was performed to know the outcome under uncertain situation. By examining premiums and losses of each water stakeholder, this study provide a better risk-based decision/policy making process. The study find answers to such kind of problems and provides a fair, reasonable, and beneficial solution between different agents. By this way, decision makers will able to enhance public welfare through the deliberate management of water resources.CONTENTS 口試委員會審定書 i 誌謝 ii 中文摘要 iii ABSTRACT iv CONTENTS v LIST OF FIGURES viii LIST OF TABLES x Chapter 1 Introduction 11 1.1 Motivation 11 1.2 Problem statement 12 Chapter 2 Literature review 15 2.1 Economic approaches 15 2.2 Agent-based approaches 17 2.3 Risk approaches 19 Chapter 3 Theoretical framework 23 3.1 Basic theory and modeling framework 23 3.2 Problem description 26 3.3 General form and concept 27 3.3.1 Water allocation without risk 27 3.3.2 Water allocation under risk 29 Chapter 4 Specific form and numerical simulation 37 4.1 Water allocation without risk 37 4.1.1 Consider with utility function 37 4.1.2 Consider with loss function 47 4.2 Water allocation under risk 53 4.2.1 One stage 54 4.2.2 Two stages 59 4.2.3 Three and n stages 63 Chapter 5 Water transfer between regions 70 5.1 General concept of water transfer in a region 70 5.1.1 In continuous and various flow conditions 70 5.1.2 In sum of probability random variables 72 5.2 Water transfer without risk 76 5.3 Water transfer under risk 83 5.3.1 Independent and uncorrelated 84 Chapter 6 Conclusion 87 REFERENCES 891653900 bytesapplication/pdf論文公開時間：2017/08/25論文使用權限：同意有償授權(權利金給回饋學校)風險分攤水資源分配邊際分析[SDGs]SDG13thesishttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/260794/1/ntu-103-R01521304-1.pdf