2006-03-142024-05-16https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/667438摘要：台灣山區或地形降雨的合理估計，一直是坡地災害警戒或預警的重要指標，本計畫利用QPESUMS雷達高時空解析雨量資訊，整合即時地面自動雨量站觀測，發展局部區域定量降雨估計技術。 根據前一期計畫的成果（李等，2005），本計畫發展的Kriging差值修正技術已可描述土砂災害個案發生的降雨特徵，在與傳統雨量站內插法的比較結果上，也顯示其降雨估計的優越性。本年度進一步改進與評估其適用性。另外，2006年至今並無重大颱洪事件發生，故選定之前災害點作為示範區（高雄A031和A032），進行颱風個案研究；並利用雷達-雨量站整合雨量估計方法，評估示範區土石流潛勢溪流附近雨量站在災害警戒的代表性。 在海棠颱風（2005年）個案研究成果顯示，在7月19日1400至1900 LST之劇烈降雨資訊中，雷達-雨量站整合雨量可表現示範區災害發生的降雨特徵。此外，整合雨量利用代表雨量站（新發和大津）所推估的雨量為佳；但雷達-雨量站整合法仍受地形阻擋影響，較高山區的估計雨量仍有相當的改進空間。 另外本年度也利用持續法發展颱風侵襲期間的定量降雨預報技術，我們利用1989-2002年的個案，針對全台365個雨量站，以3小時為持續值，利用持續法進行未來1小時與3小時之降雨預估，所得結果與實際降雨的相關係數皆為0.6；此結果顯示，利用持續法對未來3小時以內的降水，可有相當程度的預報能力。 <br> Abstract: How to estimate rainfall reasonably in the mountain region is the key issue to improve the early warning of slopeland disaster. In order to get the real-time rainfall information at the high potential area that debris flow occurred, especially in the mountain area, the project use CWB QPESUMS radar reflectivity observation (the time interval is 10 minutes, and the spatial resolution is about 1 km) and surface gauge data (the time interval is 10 minutes, and the spatial resolution is about 20-30 km) to develop quantitative precipitation estimation and forecast (QPE/QPF) techniques during typhoon period. On the previous study of this project (Lee et al., 2005), it has demonstrated that the quality of integrated radar-gauge precipitation is superior to the interpolated precipitation by surrounding gauges. Especially typhoon rainfall is concentrated at local area and surrounding gauges is few. In the study of this year, the integrated radar-gauge rainfall is verified in local debris flow event of typhoon Haitang (2005). We analyzed the integrated rainfall and compared with the observation of representative raingauges Shin-Fa and Da-Jin. The results show that the integrated rainfall is a reasonable index to explain the occurrence of debris flow, and representative raingauges present less characteristics. In the study of typhoon 0-3 hours QPF by the integrated radar-gauge rainfall, we use the1989-2002 typhoon case to develop a 3 hours persistent method to forecast the rainfall in local region. The result showed that the persistent method show better forecast compared with the climate model forecast, and the correlation coefficient between forecast rainfall and raingauge observation is about 0.6-0.7.QPESUMS雷達整合雨量站降雨差值校正法持續法QPESUMSintegrated radar-gauge rainfallpersistent method