2011-08-242024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/684077摘要：由於氣候因素造成降水型態的改變加上人為開發因素的影響，目前全球都同樣面臨水資源不均的問題，已有超過25個國家投入人工增雨之研究和作業。近一、二十年來，國際間人工增雨相關觀測能力和數值模式有了顯著的進展，同時由於進行人工增雨作業之愈趨頻繁，亦帶動了相關設備和施放技術等工具的改進。但人工增雨之方法與成效隨著地理、氣象條件會有相當大的變化，在某一地可行之方法不一定能適用在其他地方。因此有必要參考國外新發展的技術加上本土技術的發展，改進國內人工增雨的作業方式，期能發揮效益以紓解國內水資源的壓力，亦能推動國內相關基礎研究，建立技術自主的能力。本計畫工作首先將使用含有詳盡雲微物理之氣象模式，並研發與改進使其成為種雲模式，能納入凝結核、巨核、冰核之個別作用與交互影響等機制。然後根據本地凝結核、巨核、冰核之自然狀況，對使用冰核的冷雲種雲與使用巨核的暖雲種雲，系統性評估其可能成效。本計畫並針對國內現行空中飛機種雲作業之執行方式進行改良規劃，包括設備與材料之設計選用，且進行實驗測試評估。此外並針對台灣幾個集水區的特殊地理條件，研發以無人飛機或其他準空中平台進行空中種雲之作業方式，評估其適用區域和時機，規劃應用於例行性增雨作業。由於國外所產製的暖雲焰劑有學理上的缺陷，本計畫將投入研發自製更有效的暖雲焰劑，並進行測試工作，包含評估最佳種雲粒子大小、化學成分，製造方法，以及施放方式等。最後將建立人工增雨成效評估之物理和化學驗證方法，包括以雷達觀測和地面降水觀測時間序列進行物理驗證分析，以及研發暖雲種雲化學追蹤劑與降水化學分析方法。本計畫預期成果有：持續研發與改進種雲模式，針對冷雲與暖雲種雲之可能成效進行評估；針對各集水區狀況，建立集水區之中尺度種雲評估決策模式；蒐集國外人工增雨技術相關資料，持續改進無人飛機空中種雲之技術，針對不同集水區規劃應用於常態人工增雨作業；研發改良暖雲種雲劑以及地面燃燒、施放裝置；持續發展物理、化學驗證方法；收集並分析人工增雨作業期間之雷達和降水化學資料，進行物理和化學驗證之成效初步評估。<br> Abstract: This project assists the Water Resource Administration (WRA) to develop the ability and technology with respect to rainfall enhancement and then apply to domestic cloud seeding operation. With conducting to improve cloud seeding model, techniques, and cost analysis with air-platform, plan the application of semi-air-platform, develop local-produced seeding flares, propose physical and chemical methods to evaluate the effect of cloud seeding and hold a conference to join and promote the technology.Theoretical evaluation of the warm-cloud seeding effect with rain embryo spray and condensation nuclei (CN) flares was performed using the Bowen and detailed bin model, respectively. The GCCN seeding effect is more effective when the environment is more polluted as compared to the clean or oceanic backgrounds. These results are important bases for developing domestic warm cloud seeding flares. Also the simulation result from regional weather model with detail microphysics showed that conditions suitable for warm cloud seeding is much more frequent that that for cold-cloud seeding in Taiwan. We thus will be focused on using warm cloud seeding techniques as the main cloud seeding method in Taiwan. As for the task of developing warm-cloud seeding flares, the recipes, including chemical and mixture proportion, as well as the material sources have been identified. Ion composition analysis shows that the domestic flare that we made has similar compositions as the imported ICE flare, and is a potentially more efficient cloud seeding agent. Therefore, the development of domestic flares possibly can be used to in the operation. We also proposed two solutions for spraying water droplets as rain embryos using the C-130H platform last year and will planning with the other possible airborne platform.A set of three methods are assigned for qualitative evaluation of seeding effect: (1) physical verification with the polarizing radar echo; (2)verification using rainfall time series and spatial distribution; (3) chemical verification by analyzing chemical composition in the rainwater, including the analysis of seeding material, and the food-dye that we added in the water spray of C-130H seeding. As for a more quantitative evaluation, we will need to rely on randomized seeding design and statistical analysis, which will take a few years to accumulate enough samples.種雲人工增雨人造雨cloud seedingrain enhancementartificial precipitation