Department of Economics, National Taiwan University; Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research國立臺灣大學經濟系; 中華經濟研究院陳添枝顧瑩華2017-09-082018-06-282017-09-082018-06-281998-09http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/282199http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/282199/1/index.htmlImport substitution and export promotion have been pursued in tandem in the course of Taiwan's economic development. Some argue that these apparently contradictory policy offset each other and result in a neutral trade policy stance. Others argue that the componends of this policy mix actually reinforce each other. In this paper, we study the relationship between import substitution and export performance in Taiwan over the period 1971-1991, using industry-level data. We find no evidence for the assertion that import substitution in the upstream industries contributes to the expansion of exports in the downstream industries. On the contrary, export expansion in the downstream industries was found to be a driving force behind import substitution in the upstream industries.本文以1971-1991年間的臺灣產業別資料檢驗進口替代與出口擴張的關係，結果發現出口擴張所引申的對中上游產品的需求是推動進口替代的主要力量，而政府的關稅保護政策除在 1981-1986 年間有推進進口替代之作用外，其餘時段並無效果。 相對的，國內產業的進口替代對出口競爭力及出口擴張並無助益。我們在臺灣所見到的出口擴張與進口替代兩項政策似乎相容的現象，主要是在出口掛帥的前題下，為進口替代而採的相關貿易保護政策受到市場力量的抑制，只能有限度的進行，因而表面上並不產生相互排擠的現象。159 bytestext/html進口替代出口擴張第二次進口替代Import substitutionExport expansionSecond-stage import substitution[SDGs]SDG8journal articlehttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/282199/1/index.html