2012-02-012024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/681740摘要：本研究配合中央氣象局數值氣候預測系統開發及應用，並結合氣象面相與水利面向之需求與應用，以精進數值氣候預測產品之更新性與應用性，並藉此促進水利面相之防災預警與水資源管理更加完善。關於季度預測在水利面向之應用大致可以分為兩部分，一為豐水期之防洪預警，以及枯水期之水資源調配。每當豐水期之極端降雨事件以及枯水期之缺水事件是防洪預警及水資源調配最重要的問題之一，社會大眾對豐水期強降雨威脅以及枯水期久旱缺水等資訊需求也最為殷切，因此結合水利面向之需求以精進氣候預測產品，藉以增加季度預測之應用並作為防洪減災、水資源調配的參考，使天然災害風險管理機置更為周全，本研究將以淡水河流域為例，架構氣象水利應用系統之雛型。<br> Abstract: For enhancing the modernization and applicability of the CWB numerical weather forecasting products, this study associates with not only the development and application of the CWB numerical weather forecasting system, but also the demand and application of both meteorological science and hydraulic engineering. Additionally, the study would promote the disaster warning and water resources management in hydraulic engineering.The application of seasonal precipitation forecasting to hydraulic engineering contains two aspects: flood warning during wet season and water resources management during dry season. The extreme rainfall events and the lack of water supply are the most important issues. Therefore, integrating the demand of hydraulic engineering and seasonal precipitation forecasts would promote the weather forecasting products, and propose valuable information for flood mitigation and water resources management to assist the natural hazard risk control. The Tamsui River is selected as the case study herein for developing a framework of meteorological application system.降雨預測劇烈天氣淹水防災預警