2005-01-012024-05-16https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/667292摘要：去年的研究結果顯示，在氣候變遷的預設情境 (RSM2-97V) 下，鳥類和兩生類的多樣性分佈將有明顯的位移和縮小，而台灣的高山生態系將承受最大的衝擊。延續上年度執行的計畫，本計畫繼續針對台灣資料最豐富之鳥類、兩生類、和淡水魚類，以及明顯受到影響的高山生態系之林木界線進行研究。目的在於探討氣候變遷對於生物種（台灣特有種、稀有種）、生物多樣性熱點分布、重要生態系之影響，並依據研究成果，提出我國的因應策略。主要項目包括(1)台灣現有之陸域生態之調查與環境影響因子再分析、(2) 區分人為與氣候變遷的影響、(3) 探討陸域生物多樣性分析模式之不確定性、(4)針對陸域生物多樣性在氣候變遷下所遭受之衝擊進行風險評估、(5)針對衝擊評估與風險評估結果擬定相關之調適策略。研究成果包括評估我國代表性、珍貴或稀有物種、生物多樣性與熱點、重要生態系受氣候變遷之可能衝擊，運用較精確之統計模式，模擬這些因子在未來之變化（組成結構變化、遷移、消失或新生）情形。並選定受衝擊較大且具重要性之生態區域與物種，研擬因應對策，並包含國土規劃、區位運用方式改變之建議。本計畫之成果處除了可以提供做為我國生物多樣性保育之參考外，也<br> Abstract: Based on our previous studies, in the climatic change scenario (RSM2-97V), the biodiversity of avian and amphibian are shifted and shrunk dramatically in Taiwan, and alpine ecosystems will suffer more impacts than other ecosystems. This year, we focus on birds, amphibians, freshwater fish and tree lines in alpine ecosystems to evaluate the climate change impact on terrestrial ecosystem in Taiwan. Our emphasis will be on the effect of climate changes on species level (endemic species, and rare species), and ecosystem level (hotspots, preserves, and alpine ecosystems). A suggestion of adaptation strategy based our findings will be proposed. Our tasks will include (1) reevaluation on the relationships of terrestrial biodiversity and environmental factors, and their changes under climate changes, (2) classifying the differences between men-made influences and climatic impacts, (3) a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the model stability, (4) risk assessment of biodiversity under climate change trend, and (5) recommendation of adaptation strategy. Our results shall provide basic information on how the biodiversity (structure, migration, displacement) in Taiwan will be affected in the future. An adaptation strategy that covers topics related to national land planning and zoning will be proposed. We hope these finding can be used as the foundation for biodiversity conservation and provide a direction for future climate change research in Taiwan.氣候變遷陸域生態國土規劃氣候影響climatic changeterrestrial biodiversitynational land planningclimatic impacts