梁乃匡臺灣大學:海洋研究所林俊傑Lin, Jiunn-JyeJiunn-JyeLin2010-05-062018-06-282010-05-062018-06-282009U0001-1708200918423900http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/181254颱風波浪脫離暴風區域後稱為湧浪，常比颱風先到達岸邊，無預警的造成沿海的生命和財產的損失。梁(1989)提出颱風湧浪預報模式，然而在2006年艾維尼(Ewiniar)颱風的湧浪推算結果，與實測資料相差很遠，有必要重新檢討修正。本研究採用花蓮港波浪測站資料，結合中央氣象局颱風資料，求出湧浪週期的經驗公式為：p=(0.041667×A+0.1321)×UR4s=(DD3×R4)/(TR4Br)^4p其中為最大能量週期(秒)，DD3為颱風中心與花蓮港測站之間的距離(海浬)，R4為以Rodolfo法(2002)求出的最大風速半徑(公里，需轉換成海浬)，TR4Br、UR4s為停滯颱風以Bretschneider(1976) 颱風波浪推算法求出的最大風速半徑處的風浪週期(秒)及傾度風速(公里/小時)。浪波高經驗公式為:s=0.2331×(HR4Br)×[√(R4/DD3)]×λ中Hs為示性波高(公尺)，HR4Br為滯留颱風以Bretschneider(1976)求出的最大風速半徑處的風浪波高(英呎)，λ為颱風接近或遠離測站時因為都卜勒效應(Liang，2003)而造成湧浪波高堆積或消散的修正係數。並以象神、碧利斯、科羅紗、辛樂克等颱風作驗証，均有不錯的結果。As typhoon waves propagate out of the storm, it is called the swell. Since the group velocity of swell is swifter than the typhoon itself so that it often arrives shore earlier. Without warning the swell may cause serious property damage and even loss of human lives. Liang(1989) had proposed the typhoon swell forecast model. However, the swell hindcast for typhoon Ewiniar in 2006 is much higher than measured data. Therefore, in this study the author analyzes wave data at Hualain Harbor and typhoon data provided by Central Weather Bureau obtaining an empirical equation for typhoon swell period, i.e.p=(0.041667×A+0.1321)×UR4s=(DD3×R4)/(TR4Br)^4 Where Tp is the peak period in second ,DD3 is the distance between typhoon center and the station in nautical mile, R4 is the radius of maxium winds in nautical mile estimated by Rodolfo''s method (2002), TR4Br、UR4s are the wave period at radius of maximum winds in second、sea-surface wind speed at radius of maxium winds in km.h-1 for stationary typhoon caculated by Bretschneider’s method (1976).he swell height empirical equaiton is:s=0.2331×(HR4Br)×[√(R4/DD3)]×λ Where Hs is the significant wave in meter, HR4Br is the wave height at radius of maxium winds in feet for stationary typhoon calculated by Bretschneider’s method (1976).λ is the coefficient of wave height modification by Doppler effect(Liang,2003). Applying to typhoon Xangsane、Bilis、Korsa、Sinlaku,the typhoon swell hindcasting is acceptable.誌謝……………………………………………………………………………Ⅰ文摘要………………………………………………………………………Ⅱ文摘要………………………………………………………………………Ⅲ目錄…………………………………………………………………………VII目錄…………………………………………………………………………IX號說明………………………………………………………………………X一章 緒論 ……………………………………………………………………1-1 前言…………………………………………………………………………1-2 研究動機與目的……………………………………………………………3二章 文獻回顧………………………………………………………………6-1 風浪成長及消散機制的發展過程…………………………………………6-2 颱風波浪示性波法…………………………………………………………7-2-1 Bretschneider 颱風波浪參數法…………………………………………9-2-2 梁颱風湧浪推算法……………………………………….....................12-2-3 美國工程兵團SPM法………………………………………………...13-2-4 Rodolfo法……………………………………………............................13-3 波譜法…………………………………………………………................15三章 研究工具與方法…………………………………………………......23-1研究環境……………………………………………………….................23-2資料來源與處理……………………………………………….................24-3資料處理……………………………………………………….................26-3-1求分界點座標 ………………………………………...…...................26-3-2求颱風移動速度 …………………………………….........................27-3-3單筆警報單時間回推方法及步驟…………………..…………….…...27-3-4求波高堆積係數 ………………………………………………....…..30-4四種最大風速半徑 、 、 、 ……………………………..…....32-5四種湧浪推算方法………………………………………….……....……34-5-1 Bretschneider(1976)滯留颱風預報模式與梁(1989)湧浪算模式步驟…....................................................................................................34-5-2 Bretschneider(1976)移動颱風預報模式與梁(1989)湧浪算模式步驟…....................................................................................................36-5-3SPM (2001)移動颱風預報模式與梁(1989)浪推算模式步驟………………...................................................................….38-5-4 Rodolfo(2002)移動颱風預報模式與梁(1989)湧浪算模式步驟…………………………………………………………..39-5-5簡寫代號整理……………………………….........…………........ 41-6標準差(Standard deviation， )…………………………….....................41-7五個參數對……………………………………………………..................42四章 結果與驗証……………………………………………………….......44-1正規化標準差的推算結果………………………….………......................44-2相關係數的推算結果…………………………………………...................45-3實例驗証…………………………………………………….......................47-3-1波高實例驗証的推算步驟…………………………...............................47-3-2週期實例驗証的推算步驟…………………………...............................48-3-3驗証結果……………………………………………...............................50五章 結論與建議…………………………………………..……….............53-1結論……………………………………………………..............................53-2建議……………………………………………………..............................53考文獻…………………………………………………….............................55附錄 3-2】31個採納的颱風部份警報單原始資料………………..…......57附錄 3-5】197筆資料計算結果…………………………..........................64附錄 4-1】16×197的C1矩陣…………………………….........................70附錄4-3-3】四個驗証颱風的計算結果………………….………….……76application/pdf1833223 bytesapplication/pdfen-US湧浪颱風最大風速半徑與測站距離都卜勒效應SwellTyphoon Radius of Maximum WindDistance to StationDoppler Effectthesishttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/181254/1/ntu-98-R92241105-1.pdf