2016-08-012024-05-18https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/703127摘要：21世紀人類已進入大數據（Big data或Megadata）時代，大數據挖掘為我們提供探索民意一個全新的機遇和挑戰。在網際網路普及後，兩岸民眾得以在地方論壇或社交媒體發表自己對外交事務的看法。過去西方主流學界認為中國大陸沒有選舉制度，政府將缺乏回應民眾的意見，這種看法已經被一些研究推翻，中國政府是有條件地回應民意。本計畫從聽眾成本（audience cost）的理論出發，以大數據分析的方法，比較臺灣與中國大陸的兩岸政策，是否逐漸受到網路民意的影響。過去有關聽眾成本的研究，特別是中國大陸這樣舉足輕重的大國，資料還非常有限，將中國大陸的案例帶入一般性理論的討論，將有助於理論的進步。中國大陸的聽眾成本雖然比不上民主國家，但卻可以增加統治成本，甚至是牽動菁英鬥爭的引線，其重要性長期受到忽略。本計畫將觀察未來三年兩岸發生重大事件時，比較兩岸網路民意的反應內容、類型與政治後果，目前兩岸問題研究的專家，仍未有人對此進行有系統的研究。<br> Abstract: At the start of the 21st century, humanity has entered the era of big data. The mining of big data provides new opportunities and challenges for exploring public opinion. As the Internet becomes universal, citizens in Taiwan and mainland China increasing use local forums or social media to express their opinions on foreign affairs. In the past, mainstream Western academic opinion held that since mainland China does not have a system of elections, the government is not responsive to the opinions of citizens. However, this view has been overturned by a number of studies. Under certain conditions, the Chinese government is responsive to public opinion. This project applies the theory of audience cost, using big data analysis to compare whether the Cross-Strait policy of Taiwan and mainland China is affected by online public opinion. Previous research on audience cost in critical powers such as mainland China has suffered from a lack of data. Including mainland China in the theoretical conversation on audience cost will help develop theory in this area. Although audience cost in mainland China is not at the level of democratic countries, it can still increase costs of governance, and even become a factor in elite competition. The project will compare the content, type, and political consequences of online reactions on both sides of the Strait to major developments in Cross-Strait relations over the next three years. At present, scholars working on Cross-Strait issues have yet to carry out this type of systematic research.大數據聽眾成本民意兩岸政策中國大陸臺灣big dataaudience costpublic opinionCross-Strait politymainland ChinaTaiwan