2006-08-012024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/685877摘要：傳統上，對於電信需求的實證研究多是把家戶視為一個單獨的決策者。這樣的限制條件忽視了家戶當中成員彼此的互動關係。家戶成員的消費決定並非互相獨立的，相反地，裝設電話的決定是會受到家中其他人決定的影響。一方面而言，網路效果與網內互打的優惠都會使得家中成員彼此的決定存在正向的回饋效果；另一方面，想要分享使用其他成員電話機的念頭，又會造成負向的回饋效果。因此，消費外部性的正負號，是個實證上的議題，而且可能隨著商品的差異、家戶背景的差異而有不同的外部性效果。如果想要得到對於電信需求的正確估計，我們勢必要將家戶內的消費外部性納入考慮。 在這個研究當中，我將使用一個離散賽局的架構來分析家戶內的消費決定。儘管在非同步(sequential-move)賽局時總是有一個subgame-perfect的均衡，在同步(simultaneous-move)賽局下則可能會出現多重的Nash均衡，而成為一個不完整計量模型(incomplete econometric model)。模型參數只有在家戶人數為二以下時才可以完全認定(fully identified)。當家戶人數較多時，參數只有部分認定(parti<br> Abstract: Traditional empirical studies of telecommunication demand treat a household as a single decision-maker. This restrictive assumption ignores interactions among individuals within a household. Household members do not make decisions independently. Their telephone subscription choices depend on other members’ decisions. On the one hand, both network effects and intra-network discounts provide positive feedbacks between their decisions. On the other hand, the incentive to free riding is a negative feedback. As a result, the sign of the externalities is an empirical issue. Furthermore, to obtain an appropriate estimate of the demand, we need to take into account intra-household consumption externalities. In this project, I will use a discrete game to model the subscription decisions within a household. Although there always exists a unique subgame-perfect equilibrium in a sequential-move game, multiple Nash equilibria are possible in a simultaneous-move game. Consequently, this is an incomplete econometric model under a simultaneous-move game assumption. The model parameters are fully identified only when the number of household members is less than three. When there are more household members, it is only partially identified. I will use the Surveys of Household Income and Expenditures in Taiwan between 1995 and 2004 to estimate the demand for cellular phone and fixed-line phone services. When the number of household members is greater than two, I will apply several different econometric approaches to estimate the partially identified game-theoretical model and analyze the telecommunication demand in Taiwan.離散賽局電信需求網路效果discrete gametelecommunication demandnetwork effect