中央研究院人文社會科學研究中心調查研究專題中心Center for Survey Research, Research Center for Humanities and Social Sciences, Academia Sinica杜素豪羅婉云洪永泰Tu, S.H.S.H.TuLo, W.Y.W.Y.LoHung, Y.T.Y.T.Hung2017-09-082018-06-282017-09-082018-06-282009-09http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/281652抽樣調查資?因樣本代表性失真而造成對母體推估偏差的補救辦法通常是採用加權處?，基本上以社會人口特徵為依據。然而僅從樣本人口特徵的分布是否和母體相符?判斷樣本的代表性並?能保證樣本在認知、態?與?為等主題變項在分布上的推?就?會有偏差。本文以總統選舉投票?為的調查資?為?，探討依據入選機?的次樣本分組（subclassification on the propensity score）所調整的電話調查結果在投票?為推估方面的成效。首先?用二○○四?台灣地區社會變遷基本調查四期五次公民權組問卷資?，以樣本重抽法（bootstrapping）產生包含20,000 案的擬母體（Pseudo-population），再從擬母體中以簡單隨機抽樣法抽取200 案為?考樣本，另外從一個典型的電話訪問調查資?中以分層隨機法抽出800 案為試驗樣本。?套樣本組合成為一套1,000 案的新樣本。其次依據Lee (2006) 的入選機?調整法（propensity score adjustment, PSA）進?電訪樣本「投票?為」估計值的調整。整個?程進?2,000 次的模擬分析。評估結果確認藉由次樣本分組所產生的入選機?調整法的確有?低推估偏差的功效。It is common to use socio-demographic variables for weighting, but this does not mean that other inferences, especially on attitudes and behavior variables, will be free of bias. This article takes voting behavior in a presidential election as an example to examine the effects of adjusting the telephone survey results using subclassifications on the propensity score as suggested by Lee (2006). We first used the Taiwan Social Change Survey (TSCS, 2004) wave 4 module for a citizenship study to produce a pseudo-population dataset based on bootstrapping sampling. A random sample of 200 cases was drawn from this dataset. In addition, a stratified random sample of 800 cases was drawn from a telephone survey. The two samples were combined into a sample of 1,000 cases. Propensity Score Adjustment (PSA) allows us to adjust and evaluate the proper estimation of voting behavior based on the subclassification of propensity score. The procedure was repeated 2,000 times. The results showed that the PSA method does effectively reduce telephone survey estimate bias.14506676 bytesapplication/pdf不完整資料；入選機率；入選機率調整法；投票行為；Incomplete Data；Propensity Scores；Propensity Score Adjustment；Voting Behaviorjournal articlehttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/281652/1/0041_200909_4.pdf