2010-10-012024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/680523摘要：本研究將探討無水庫供水系統之蘭陽溪流域受氣候變遷影響可能遭受的衝擊，主要工作內容為利用第一年計畫中蒐集彙整之資料，建立及完成蘭陽平原地下水系統模擬模式，並依據地表水資源系統動力模式之成果，配合本研究提出之地下水供水承載力之分析流程，發展氣候變遷下蘭陽溪地面水與地下水聯合營運模式，模式中以最低缺水為目標，以供水量及供水比例做為不同供水策略之分類形式，結合啟發式演算法之優化能力，最佳化水庫及地下水資源於不同可使用量之限制下適當之用水策略。 過去氣候變遷衝擊研究流程乃以不確定性高的氣候變遷情境開始，導致後續衝擊評估也具有相當之不確定性。本計畫擬提出反向評估流程來強化調適策略與行動計畫推動之可行性與信賴度，流程為（1）評估現有系統容忍氣候變化之範圍或致災門檻；（2）評估可能調適措施在不同氣候下可強化原系統容忍氣候變化範圍或修正致災門檻值。 本研究將利用地面地下水聯合營運模式，反向推求現有系統之氣候容忍範圍及致災門檻，進而透過加入調適策略改變系統之氣候容忍範圍，評估不同氣候情況下，蘭陽平原之供水風險，進一步擬定適合之調適策略，期望針對蘭陽溪流域，強化與發展無水庫之供水系統評估模式，同時強化地面水與地下水資源聯合營運之評估方法。 <br> Abstract: This study will focus on evaluating the impacts of climate change on non-reservoir water supply system in the LanYan basin. An optimization model of conjunctive operation with surface water and groundwater will be developed in this study. The model coupled with a system dynamics model of surface water, a well established groundwater model of LanYan plain based on data collection in prior work and a procedure for evaluating water supply carrying capacity. The goal of this optimization model is to minimize the water deficient by utilizing the heuristic algorithm, and finally provide different water supplying strategies under varying available water resources In the past, the process of evaluating climate change impact starts from the high-uncertainty climate change scenarios and induces the high-uncertainty results. This study proposes an inverse process of evaluation to strengthen the reliability and confidence of the adaptation strategies and actions. The process is to (1) evaluate the coping range or the critical thresholds of a system; (2) evaluate the strengthening coping range or the critical thresholds for different adaptation strategy under different climate change scenario. The coping range or the critical thresholds of the system will be evaluated and applied in the assessment of climate change impacted water resources system through the optimization model of conjunctive operation with water resources. The purpose of this study is to determine the risk of water supply system of the LanYan plain under different adaptation strategies. Further, the assessment model of non-reservoir water supply system will be developed and strengthened. Also the method of conjunctive operation with surface water and ground water will be strengthened.氣候變遷調適策略容忍範圍供水系統最佳化聯合營運Climate ChangeAdaptation StrategyCoping RangeWater Supply SystemOptimizationConjunctive Operation發展因應氣候變遷之洪旱災害消減技術–以蘭陽溪流域為示範區-總計畫暨子計畫：發展供水系統容忍氣候變化門檻評估技術與調適能力強化策略(II)(國科會)