2013-02-062024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/682650摘要：氣候變遷會導致水文氣象環境之極端化，進而影響水資源系統之供水能力與需求負荷，為確保在氣候變遷影響下，仍能維持水資源供需平衡，必須評估水資源系統之缺水風險，並探討必要之強化措施。近年來，水利署已分別針對北、中、南、東等水資源分區進行研究，分析現況與未來氣候下水資源系統之風險，並評估已規劃水利措施之效用與可能之供水缺口，然後進一步探討可以採用之措施以強化調適能力。 氣候變遷研究已從科學基礎研究進展到應用性研究，為落實氣候變遷調適措施之推動，並確保採取措施之有效性，必須針對氣候變遷研究之不確定性進行分析，並予以量化，最終並將其納入決策之機制。氣候變遷下水資源系統風險評估與調適能力建構之流程包括（1）未來氣候情境之推估；（2）氣候推估資料降尺度分析；（3）水文模式分析；（4）水資源系統現況風險分析；（5）水資源系統未來風險分析；（6）調適措施之篩選與評估；（7）監測與調適措施之修正。本研究目的在瞭解評估流程之不確定性來源，並提供氣候變遷不確定性對供水能力與需求負荷影響之量化分析方法，最後提出考量不確定性之決策分析方法。 本研究主要工作項目包括（1）收集與分析氣候變遷不確定性與納入決策之文獻；（2）探討不確定性來源；（3）建立氣候變遷不確定性量化分析方法；（4）評估氣候變遷不確定性對供水能力與調適措施之影響；（5）發展納入氣候變遷不確定性之決策機制。不確定性來源將探討未來氣候資料的推估、氣象合成資料、水文歷程方程式與參數、水資源系統與管理制度、與經濟社會情境等；不確定性的量化描述方式可能包括區間數、模糊數、或機率函數，將在研究過程建議適當描述方法，並探討供水能力與調適措施受氣候變遷不確定性之影響；本研究最後將探討水資源供需缺口與已規劃之水資源措施在氣候變遷下之不確定性，且探討調適措施對氣候變遷之容忍度，提出考量氣候變遷不確定性之決策與修正機制。 <br> Abstract: Climate change may result in extreme hydrologic and weather events, which could further influence the ability of water supply and the loadings of water demand. To meet water balance especially under climate change, it is crucial to evaluate the possible risk of a water supply system and its necessary strengthening measures. In recent year, Water Resources Agency has funded several projects to evaluate the risk of water supply systems, the gaps between supply and demands, and their possible strengthening measures under current and future climatic conditions for northern, central, southern, and eastern regions, respectively. The research of climate change impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment has been changed from fundamental science study to application study. To implement adaptive measures and to make sure their effectiveness, it is necessary to study uncertainty and to develop quantification methods. Besides, a decision making process to take the uncertainty into account is also very important. The procedure to evaluate the risk and adaptive capacity of a water supply system includes (1) the projections of future climate, (2) downscaling, (3) hydrological modeling, (4) risk analysis of a water resources system under current climatic condition, (5) risk analysis of a water resources system under future climatic condition, (6) screening and evaluating adaptive measures, (7) monitoring and revising adaptive measures. The purpose of this study is to identify the key sources of uncertainty in the above procedure and to develop the quantification methods to describe the uncertainty. At last, this study aims to propose a decision making method to take the uncertainty into account. The major tasks of this study include (1) reviewing research papers on climate change uncertainty and decision making process, (2) identifying key sources of uncertainty, (3) developing uncertainty quantification method for climate change study, (4) evaluating the influence of climate change uncertainty on water supply ability and adaptive measures, (5) developing decision making process to take uncertainty into account. The uncertainty of climate change resulting from projections of future climate, weather generation, equations and parameters to describe hydrological processes, water resources systems and management, and economic and social scenarios will be examined in this study. Interval number, fuzzy number and probability distribution are often used to describe uncertainty. This study will suggest the proper method for climate change study and apply to evaluate the influence of uncertainty on water supply ability and adaptive measures. This study will follow the procedure of risk analysis for water supply systems to evaluate the uncertainty of gaps between water supply and demands and to discuss the tolerant level of uncertainty of adaptive measures. At last, a decision making and revising process to take the uncertainty and the tolerant levels into account will be proposed.氣候變遷不確定性供水能力調適能力水資源管理Climate ChangeUncertaintyWater Supply AbilityAdaptive CapacityWater Resources Management