2009-02-282024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/684092摘要：水利署鑒於防洪預警與應變作業需要，於2004-2006年期間委託台大水工所規劃「洪水預報格網」，擬透過模組化、分散演算、分散展示應用的設計，整合和改進過去研發的氣象、水文軟體，建立易於維護、自動化執行的洪水預報作業系統軟體。2007-2009年的「水文模式與分散式洪水預報系統整合應用計畫」，是在既有的基礎上，持續建置與改進。三年計畫的整體工作項目分為五項：(1)增進預報系統應用功能－新增資料品質控管，水庫洩洪決策支援功能，強化演算模組和統計分析工具模組，並將參數檢定模組改為以XML定義執行程序、遠端演算；(2)強化現有水文模式功能－開發逕流模式與河川模式參數檢定優選模式，河川模式的資料同化和逕流模式的回饋功能；(3)整合納入其他水文模式－輔助水利署其他計畫的模式開發者，撰寫格式轉譯程式和通用轉譯程式，設計新類型模式的輸入、輸出資料的XML標準檔案格式，以便納入系統運作；(4)改善分散式系統作業機制－將模組輸出入指標和執行流程指標XML化，提高中介層軟硬體作業效能，增加系統自動化運作功能等；以及(5)推廣系統應用－於計畫執行的三年期限內，開發烏溪、高屏溪、八掌溪、蘭陽溪和大甲溪等流域的洪水預報系統，並透過教育訓練輔助水利署各河川局與水資源局應用，達到支援防洪應變的效益。 本(2009)年度為三年期計劃中的第三年，本年度預計完成工作項目如下： 1.「颱風降雨決策支援系統」新增氣候法90%累積機率降雨推估產品。 2.更新維護淡水河、濁水溪、烏溪、高屏溪、八掌溪流域資料。 3.颱洪時期協助分析研判氣象水文情勢，定時提供淡水河、濁水溪、烏溪、高屏溪、八掌溪流域等定點水位預報。 4.開發曾文溪流域、大甲溪流域和蘭陽溪流域洪水預報系統。 5.技術轉移及系統與資通安全測試。<br> Abstract: During 2004-2006, Water Resources Agency commissioned The Hydrotech Research Institute of National Taiwan University to develop “Distributed Runoff And Inundation Nowcast System” (DRAINS) to satisfy the operation needs for flood early warning and mitigation. The key elements of the system include modulization, distributed computing, distributed application design. The system is also expected to integrate and improve the algorithms of the meteor- and hydrology software for easy maintenance and auto-execution. Based on these established results, the 2007-2009 “Integration and application of hydrologic models and the distributed flood forecasting system” project is to further develop the system by completing the following 5 tasks. They are: (1) improving the mechanism within the Distributed Runoff And Inundation Nowcast System (DRAINS); (2) refining the existing hydrologic models; (3) enhancing the functions of the forecasting system; (4) modularizing and integrating hydrologic models developed by other groups into the system; and (5) implementing flood forecast system for other designated watersheds. 2009 is the third fiscal year of this 3-year project; the tasks to be done in this year are the followings: 1.Construct the 90% cumulative probability hyetograph product of typhoon into the “Typhoon Rainfall Decision Support System”.. 2.Update the newly measured river cross-section data and parameters of Tanshui River, Choshui River, Wu River, Pa-chang River and Kao-ping River basins。 3.Provide potential weather outlook and hydrologic model stage and discharge hydrograph output at designated locations at the 5 listed rivers. 4.Implement flood forecast systems for Tsengwen River, Dajia River, and Lanyang River. 5.Transfer technologies of models and system to Water Resources Agency as well as examine and resolve the information security and risk of the system.