徐美玲2006-07-252018-06-282006-07-252018-06-282002http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/11413近年來人口的增加和工、商產業的發展，使得都市邊緣可達性較高的丘陵山坡地逐漸轉變為茶園、果園以及住宅等，這種土地利用的轉變對生態環境的衝擊，乃集水區經營者在進行土地規劃和管理時，所必須面對的考驗。由於集水區內土地利用與自然環境因素之間的交互影響，若循往例以不具空間分佈特性的土地利用與逕流資料去推演模式，恐難有效推估資料代表時段以外的土地利用變動對環境產生的衝擊。因此本研究擬發展一個適於本土環境、並可直接處理由衛星影像判識所得的土地利用資料的網格式分佈型水文模式（grid 一based distributed hydrological model ) ，以期有效預規J 集水區土地利用改變時，所可能導致的河1 叮水文特性的變化。目前初步完成模式中各相關模組的研發，包含利用DEMs 析取坡度、流向與集流面積;利用衛星影像評估土地利用類別;結合蒙地卡羅法、最大概似法與效率係數的參數率定器;以及整合Green and AmPt 的入滲理論、Darey 一Wdsbach 的流速公式，以及聖凡南方程式的水文演算模組。 本年度以頭前溪上游支流一油羅溪內灣水文站以上的集水區做為研究區，蒐集區內四個雨量測站及內灣水文站民國1981 到2000 年的雨量和水文資料，並整合內政部地政司民國83 年的全國土地利用及森林大調查資料，進行初步統計分析。在不考慮土地利用所引發的入滲和水流摩擦效應的前提下，初步以1997 年07 月04 日的暴雨雨量資料，及40 組模式參數組進行模式的測試。研究結果顯示，目前模式在洪峰歷線的上升段、洪峰到達時間、洪峰量都有不錯的掌握;即以地形、地表組成（含：入滲與摩擦係數）為主要的控制因素可以初步掌握洪峰歷線。但是在退水段的模擬以及整體效率係數的評估結果卻仍不理想，初步推斷乃因未考量地表下逕流（subeurface flow ）所致，將來必須納入模式中加以考量。Rapid population growth and industrial development in recent years have resulted in urban sprawl onto the peripheral slopeland and cultivation of some forested land. These land use changes have great impacts on the watershed ecosystem, and have been the major concern in watershed management. Due to the interrelationship between the use of a land and its environmental factors, effective prediction of the impact of land use change on watershed runoff can only be achieved by incorporating the actual spatial distribution of land use within a watershed. This study aims to develop a grid-based distributed hydrological model which can readily incorporate land use information derived from satellite imageries and simulate watershed hydrographs for different land use spatial patterns. We have completed some preliminary modules of the model, including slope gradient, slope aspects, and specific catchment area calculation module based on digital terrain model, land use classification model through satellite image intepretation, a parameter calibration device by combining Monte Carlo simulation, Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Efficiency Coefficient, as well as a flow distribution module made of Green and Ampt infiltration model, Darcy-Weisbach Equation and Saint-Venant Equation. The watershed of the Nai-Wong Hydrological Station was chosen as the study area. The meteorological data for the four meteorological stations within the watershed and the hydrological data for Nai-Wong Hydrological Station, collected from 1980 to 2000, were analyzed. By ignoring the effects on infiltration and flow roughness caused by land use, the rainfall data collected during a storm on July 4, 1997 were used to simulate overland flow and the stream hydrograph. 40 parameter sets were adopted for simulation tests. Preliminary results showed that the model¡¦s general performance was acceptable, it worked well in predicting the rising limb, the peak and its lag time of the hydrograph, but did poorly in predicting the general tendency of the hydrograph¡¦s falling limb. This discrepancy was postulated as being due to the lack of a subsurface flow consideration.application/pdf4443939 bytesapplication/pdfzh-TW國立臺灣大學地理環境資源學系暨研究所地理資訊系統數值地形模型分散型水文模式運動波模式粗糙係數Green and Ampt 入滲理論Geographic Information SystemDigital Elevation ModelsDistributed Hydrological Modelkinematic waveManning's equationGreen and Ampt Infiltration[SDGs]SDG15reporthttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/11413/1/902621Z002018.pdf