葉疏2006-07-262018-06-292006-07-262018-06-292004http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/18425本研究運用Ohlson （1995,1999 ）評價模式，檢驗依一般公認會計則計算之 盈餘（以下簡稱GAAP ）、分析師擬制性盈餘(Analyst Street Earnings ，以下簡稱 擬制性盈餘)、及營業淨利三種常見盈餘之組成項目之未來異常盈餘預測能力、 及其用於企業評價時之差異。本研究按各個產業估計其異常盈餘預測回歸式及其 股權價值攸關性回歸式；在回歸式內，異常GAAP 盈餘和營業外盈餘、異常GAAP 盈餘和擬制性盈餘剔除項目、及異常營業淨利和營業淨利扣除擬制性盈餘的數字 （擬制性盈餘剔除之營業淨利），各有其回歸係數。 研究結果發現，異常營業淨利及異常擬制性盈餘都與未來盈餘預測能力及 企業評價攸關。然而，營業外淨利及擬制性盈餘剔除項目與未來盈餘預測能力及 企業評價無關。因此，雖然異常營業淨利及異常擬制性盈餘都可用來預測未來獲 利及衡量企業之價值，營業外淨利及擬制性盈餘剔除項目卻因為對未來盈餘預測 及目前企業評價無攸關性，而應被歸為暫時性盈餘項目。 研究結果亦指出，將營業淨利區分為異常擬制性盈餘及擬制性盈餘剔除項 目之作法是有益的，因為，擬制性盈餘剔除之營業淨利餘缺乏預測及評價的攸關 性。然而，將擬制性盈餘區分為異常營業淨利及擬制性盈餘剔除營業淨利之作法 是無益的。總括而言，分析師對營業淨利增添額外資訊，但是，營業淨利與擬制性盈餘相較，並未含有額外資訊。Using the Ohlson (1995, 1999) valuation model, we examine whether there are differences in abnormal earnings forecasting ability and valuation implications of the various earnings components comprising GAAP income, analyst Street earnings numbers, and operating income. We do this by estimating sets of separate industry earnings forecasting and valuation regressions permitting separate coefficients for abnormal GAAP income and non-operating income, for abnormal GAAP income and non-Street earnings, and for abnormal operating earnings and operating income minus analyst Street earnings numbers. Findings indicate there is benefit to decomposing GAAP income. In particular, abnormal operating earnings and abnormal Street earnings are forecasting and valuation relevant. However, non-operating earnings is essentially forecasting irrelevant and value irrelevant, and non-Street earnings is value irrelevant despite being somewhat forecasting relevant. Thus, although abnormal operating earnings and abnormal Street earnings are essential for forecasting future profitability and hence valuation, non-operating earnings and non-Street earnings behave similarly to transitory earnings components in that the former have little implication for the firm’s future earnings potential and current stock valuation, and the latter have little implication for current stock valuation. Reasons for finding that non-Street earnings is forecasting relevant but value irrelevant are discussed. Findings also indicate there is benefit to decomposing operating earnings into abnormal Street earnings and non-Street operating earnings, in that the non-Street component lacks value relevance, but there is little benefit to decomposing Street earnings into abnormal operating income and non-operating Street earnings. These findings suggest that analysts add information over and above that contained in operating income but operating income possesses no additional information not already contained in analyst Street numbers.application/pdf162717 bytesapplication/pdfzh-TW國立臺灣大學會計學系暨研究所分析師擬制性盈餘盈餘預測證券評價Ohlson 評價模型Street earningsearnings forecasting abilityvaluationOhlson valuation modelotherhttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/18425/1/922416H002024.pdf