李吉仁Li, Ji-Ren臺灣大學:國際企業學研究所陳柄榕Chen, Ping-JungPing-JungChen2010-05-112018-06-292010-05-112018-06-292008U0001-1107200816162800http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/182574在國內WiMAX執照發放後，擁有3G網路設備之既存電信業者面對未來各種不確定因素下，如何在已經佈建設備開始營運的3G，以及對3G具有高度替代性、但為Intel、Samsung、Motorola 等國際大廠所大力支持的WiMAX間做出選擇，一直是引起廣泛關注與討論的問題。論文藉由次級資料的收集，針對產業技術演進歷程以及產業發展現況做一回顧後，以六力分析的架構，確立影響產業未來演進的不確定因素來源，從而建立情境分析變數包括：該產業具有行動寬頻需求成長與否、全球WiMAX發展狀況、未來HSPA手機之普及程度，而驅動其未來發展的因果性因素則有行動WiMAX技術發展狀況、WiMAX終端設備發展時程、行動寬頻服務的價格、行動數位內容發展程度、殺手級應用出現與否、HSPA手機成本下降程度、HAPA終端設備發展狀況等。以此為基礎，本研究為各個情境變數做未來發展的假設，並在檢查各個情境中各變數間假設狀況的一致性後，本研究導出了共八個情境，而在全球WiMAX發展狀況符合預期、行動無線寬頻需求高度成長、且未來HSPA手機普及率高的情境下，為對擁有3G設備之既存電信商最有利之情境。 對於得標WiMAX執照之既存3G電信商而言，在面對WiMAX需投入龐大佈建以及營運費用，且在當前不論WiMAX技術或HSPA手機未來發展狀況皆不明朗、國內電信商對其影響力又小的情形下，本研究建議業者應(一)、待全球WiMAX技術與HSPA終端設備之發展更明朗後，再展開網路設備之佈建；(二)、利用3G既存優勢主導國內數位內容發展，創造市場對行動無線寬頻之需求；(三)、配合WiMAX主導廠商，在國內進行小規模測試，以因應情勢更趨明朗後的策略規劃。Facing the dilemma of choosing between 3G, of which the network equipment has already been broadly deployed, and WiMAX, which has been promoted by Intel, Motorola, and Samsung, whether 3G telecom service providers should adopt WiMAX and launch a wide deployment of related network equipment has been a central issue of concern which requires further systematic discussion. .ased on six-force analysis, we discovered uncertainties influencing future industry development and identified scenario variables including whether the demand for mobile broadband service will grow or not, the progress of global WiMAX development, and the penetration rate of High Speed Packet Access (HSPA) phones. In addition, the causal factors behind them were also identified as the development of WiMAX technology, the timetable of WiMAX terminal device development, the price of mobile broadband service, the development of mobile content, whether killer-application comes into being, the cost of HSPA phones, and the development of HSPA terminal devices.y employing scenario analysis, we made assumptions for each scenario variable. After examining the consistency of assumptions, we derived six scenarios and identified that scenario 1, under which the progress global WiMAX development is as expected, user demand for wireless broadband service has significantly grown, and HSPA mobile phone enjoys high penetration rate, is the most favorable scenario for existing 3G service providers. ue to the unforeseen future development of WiMAX technology and the quality and function of HSPA terminal device, we suggest that telecom service providers in Taiwan, which have limited influence on global mobile technology development, should (1) Hold the deployment of WiMAX network until the trend of global technology development is clearer; (2) Continue to develop of mobile broadband service demand by leveraging its 3G advantage; and (3) Cooperate with global WiMAX advocators to test and ensure it is a viable mobile communication technology under the geographical and demographical domestic condition.目錄一章 緒論 1一節 研究背景及動機 1二節 研究問題與研究目的 2三節 研究方法與研究限制 3四節 研究流程與架構 6二章 文獻探討 9一節 產業分析 9二節 情境分析法 15三章 行動通訊技術演進與發展狀況 25一節 行動通訊技術的演進 25二節 新一代通訊技術的發展 32三節 全球WiMAX發展現況 38四節 HSDPA發展現況 46五節 VoIP 48六節 MVNO 50四章 台灣行動通訊產業現況 53一節 台灣行動通訊產業分析 53二節 當前政府政策 62三節 國內WiMAX執照發放狀況 66五章 情境分析法 67一節 情境變數與情境發展背景 67二節 情境變數之假設 70三節 情境推導 79四節 策略建議 82六章 結論與建議 87一節 研究結論 87二節 研究建議 88考文獻 91application/pdf570537 bytesapplication/pdfen-USWiMAX產業分析情境分析Industry AnalysisScenario Analysisthesishttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/182574/1/ntu-97-R94724110-1.pdf