軌道容量規劃決策工具之研發與應用

2008-11-012024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/690349摘要：在全球因為能源短缺，而必須朝向節能減碳趨勢邁進時，軌道系統容量需求將大幅的增加。然而，世界上多數的軌道系統容量正趨近於飽和，面對急遽升高的運輸需求，如何建立一個良好的軌道容量規劃決策工具，協助規劃人員決定有效的容量擴充方案，是目前軌道運輸系統最重要的課題之一。當今的軌道容量規劃，主要倚靠於規劃人員的經驗以及模擬軟體的驗證。依據經驗可以提出合理的方案，但是卻沒有辦法確立最終方案為最佳的方案。而模擬軟體因為在運算需求的限制下，無法真正的解決龐大的網路問題。本研究擬建立一套路線容量擴充決策工具，此工具可依據每條路線的特性及未來需求量，先運用解析方法找出可能改善的方案，計算每個改善方案的預算及可提升的容量；再運用數學規劃方法建立出改善方案決策選擇模組；最後，再經由影響分析，排列出方案的先後順序，並依據所評估的預算擬出最有效益的規劃方案。這樣的規劃工具將可迅速且準確的幫助規劃人員找出最有經濟效益的擴充容量方案，同時也提升了人員與設備效率，更呼應了節能省碳的世界潮流。 <br> Abstract: Railways all over the world are increasingly experiencing capacity constraints. This would not be as important if alternative modes were able to handle the traffic but highway construction is not keeping up with the growth in demand, either. Furthermore, much of rail traffic is not economically transported by truck even if the capacity was available because rail is safer, more land-use and energy efficient, and has less environmental impact than highway transport. Therefore, public officials increasingly see rail as an alternative transport mode needed to handle the increasing freight traffic that will accompany sustained economic growth. This consequently raises the question, how can railroads handle additional traffic on a network that is already experiencing constrained capacity in many locations. In this research, we aim to develop a new decision support framework to help capacity planners determine how to optimize the allocation of capital investment for capacity expansion projects. This framework has three stand-alone tools: (1) an “Alternatives Generator” that enumerates possible expansion options along with their cost and capacity effects; (2) an “Investment Selection Model” that determines which portions of the network (at the subdivision level) need to be upgraded with what kind of capacity improvement options; and (3) an “Impact Analysis Module” that evaluates the tradeoff between capital investment and delay cost. Based on the network characteristics, estimated future demand, and available budget, the proposed decision support framework can successfully determine the optimal solution regarding which subdivisions need to be upgraded and what kind of engineering options should be conducted. Such a tool will help railroads maximize their return from capacity expansion projects and thus be better able to provide reliable service to their customers, and return on shareholder investment.軌道運輸容量規劃決策工具Railway TransportationCapacity AnalysisDecision Support軌道容量規劃決策工具之研發與應用