2010-04-242024-05-14https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/656016摘要：颱風和梅雨所帶來的豪大雨常導致河川中下游嚴重水患，對人民的生命財產影響甚鉅。為減少受災程度，常需提前做好各項防救災準備工作；因此，淹水災害的準確預警為防救災工作之重要環節。本計畫之目的在配合水利署災害預警、應變作業之需求，發展颱風及梅雨季流域集水區定量降雨預報技術，並於淹水災害預警應變作業期間，提供專業氣象資訊，供水利署參考。全程計畫預計三年完成，本年為第三年計畫，研究的重點為梅雨季中南部主要流域集水降雨之MOS（Model Output Statistics）預報法的發展。 發展MOS預報法時將使用2000 ~ 2009年梅雨季（5、6月）、每日兩次（00UTC與12UTC）的模式輸出資料，配合流域平均雨量，建立中南部主要流域集水區降雨的MOS預報模式，並利用2010年觀測資料與預報結果進行驗證和模式改進，取得最佳的MOS預報模式。其次，本計畫將於梅雨季豪雨應變和颱風警報期間，提供水利署未來天氣加值研判資訊及氣象資訊專業諮詢。本計畫並於梅雨季前及颱風季後，針對水利署防災作業人員作業上的氣象資訊需求，提供氣象知識和豪雨研判分析講習。期望透過此計畫，協助水利署減少水災預警的不確定性，提昇災害應變作業之成效。 <br> Abstract: The heavy rainfall induced by Mei-yu fronts and typhoons often causes flood downstream which posts great threats to human life and properties. To reduce the damages caused by the flood, considerable precautions have to be taken in advance and the accurate flood warning is the very first step. The accuracy of flood warning relies on the accurate quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). Unfortunately, the QPF researches conducted by the meteorological community during the past years do not really meet the need of the flood warning and emergency response operation. The purpose of this project is to develop the QPF technique for watersheds and to provide value-added meteorological information during typhoon and Mei-yu seasons to support the need of Water Resource Bureau during the flood warning and emergency response phase. The whole project will be finished in three years and this is the third year of the project. Focus of this year’s research is placed on the development of the MOS (Model Output Statistics) technique for forecasting the rainfall for the major watersheds located at the Central-Southern Taiwan during the Mei-yu season. The model outputs available twice daily (0000 UTC and 1200 UTC) and the watershed-average rainfall during 2000-2009 will be used to develop the MOS technique. The data of 2010 will be used to verify and improve the MOS model to obtain the best result. Besides, value-added meteorological analyses especially the rainfall tendency will be provided during the Mei-yu and typhoon periods. Training courses will be provided before the Mei-yu season and after the typhoon season to help WRA personnel to enhance their meteorological knowledge related to the flood warning and emergency response operation. By reducing the uncertainty of flood warning, we hope to enhance the efficiency of the emergency response operation.梅雨颱風流域集水區Mei-yuTyphoonwatershed