2005-01-012024-05-18https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/710580摘要：珊瑚礁是海洋中生物多樣性最高、生產力最高的生態系，它維繫著眾多海洋生物資源的繁衍生長，也提供許多資源供人利用。然而，由於沿海地區的人口增加和土地開發，全球許多地區的珊瑚礁都面臨逐漸衰退的危機；在另一方面，氣候變遷也對珊瑚礁產生明顯的影響，曾造成大規模珊瑚白化或死亡。在人為污染和氣候變遷的衝擊之下，珊瑚礁的未來演變和因應策略是亟需探討的問題。台灣海域擁有多樣的珊瑚礁生態系，而且由於珊瑚礁鄰近海岸，直接承受污染的衝擊和人為影響，近年來，珊瑚礁監測的結果顯示，珊瑚礁生態系正在迅速衰退中，而氣候變遷的衝擊也十分明顯。在氣候變遷和人為污染的雙重影響下，台灣海域的珊瑚礁何去何從？該採取何種因應措施？這些措施是否因地制宜？都是亟需研究的課題。本計畫選擇氣候變遷的海水表溫升高及降水型態改變導致的海水濁度升高等二項因子，以遺傳規劃法建立台灣海域珊瑚分布與海水表溫及濁度的生境模式，並配合子計畫一提供的氣候變遷水文資料，探討在氣候變遷情境下，珊瑚種類分布型態改變的趨勢，同時將珊瑚種類依據形態和生態功能劃分為三大功能群，評估氣候變遷對珊瑚群聚功能的影響和變遷趨勢，並且探討衝擊評估的不確定性，研擬我國海域珊瑚礁<br> Abstract: Coral reefs are among the most productive and diverse ecosystems on earth; they provide a multitude of valuable ecosystem goods and services. The resources derived from coral reefs are essential to the people living within tropical coastal communities. However, increasing anthropogenic impacts and global climate changes induce unprecedented stresses to coral reefs and the degradation of coral reefs is common. For example, the rising of sea temperature associated with global warming has caused mass bleaching or death of coral reefs worldwide. Under the threats of anthropogenic pollution and climatic changes, the future trends and adaptive strategies of coral reefs remain to be studied. Coral reefs are among the most important marine ecosystems in Taiwan with diverse reef ecosystems found in coastal areas around Taiwan and adjacent islets. Recently these reefs have suffered increasing impacts of anthropogenic pollution and climatic changes. The purpose of this project is to investigate the impacts of future climatic changes on the function of coral reefs with an aim to develop possible adaptive strategies for conservation of coral reefs in Taiwan. The rising of sea surface temperature (SST) and turbidity will be chosen as two of the key factors that influence coral reefs in Taiwan. A robust niche model will be established by analyzing the relationships between patterns of coral distribution and SST along with turbidity. Then, the impacts of climatic change on coral distributions will be addressed by applying the predictions of local climate change scenarios developed in climatic and hydrographic studies (Project I). Coral species in local communities will be classified into three basic functional groups based on the r-K-S diagram. The changes of ecosystem functions under the threats of climate change will be discussed. The uncertainties of modeling and other related factors will be further investigated. Finally, adaptive strategies for the conservation of coral reefs in Taiwan will be made based on the results of impact assessment and uncertainty analyses.氣候變遷珊瑚礁台灣climate changecoral reefTaiwan