劉佳明2006-07-252018-06-292006-07-252018-06-2920052005-07-31http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/10798近兩年來，台灣北部受到乾旱事件衝擊，造成民生不便以及農業、工業重 大的損失。水資源乾旱的發生與氣候有極大之關係。若能預測氣象的變化，可得 知未來可能之乾旱發生，進而即時進行決策降低乾旱之衝擊。目前對於乾旱最常 使用連續無降雨日或與降雨量相關之方法定義，但是水資源系統中包括了需求面 及供給面，單單只用降雨來定義乾旱的發生，往往忽略了因為供需失去平衡造成 的乾旱。因此本計畫將透過各子計畫間的整合，以整體水資源系統的角度定義乾 旱，與乾旱預警機制及其風險管理系統。 完整的乾旱預警與風險管理機制中主要分為氣象預測、水資源模擬以及決策 管理三方面。在氣象預測方面，本計畫未來將利用降尺度(Downscaling)與資料轉 換的技術，結合長期氣象預報資料，可以提供各子計畫過去水文統計預測所不足 的短期氣象預測資料。今年度則以實際氣象資料代替，模擬完美預報情況下的預 警與優選調適策略。在水資源系統方面，利用Vensim 動力系統模式建立與模擬 整個淡水河水資源運作系統，未來將結合氣象預測與各子計畫，推估未來水資源 系統的乾旱事件。然而要有效的降低乾旱損失，必須進一步採用調適策略。本計 畫的乾旱調適策略分為農業用水調配策略、子計畫一、二的乾旱時期地下水補助 策略，以及其他調適策略等。而農業用水調配策略則為本研究今年度的重點。未 來兩年計畫將以淡水河流域為研究實例，彙整各子計畫的供需資料，建立一套乾 旱預警機制與管理策略。For the past two years, the northern Taiwan has been attacked by serious drought events. The shortage of water resource is highly related to the climate variability. Thus, the reliable whether prediction, which could be applied detect the possibly coming drought events, can help to make early warning and risk management strategies for reducing the impact from droughts. Currently, the most popular method to define the drought is based on the amount of rainfall or the continuous non-rainfall days. The water resource systems, however, must take both supply and demand into account. It will be unbalanced and incomplete if only using the rainfall definition for the drought. Therefore, the purpose of this project is to define the drought from integrated water resource system through the combination of all sub-projects, and establish the drought early warning and risk management system. The drought early warning and risk management system is proposed to include three components: weather forecast, water resources system simulation and decision-making analysis. In this year, historical weather data represent perfect forecasts and are used to simulate and optimize management strategies. In water resources system, potential drought events can be predicted through a system dynamics model. The drought management strategies include transferring water from agricultural sector, supplement water supply from groundwater, others. Optimizing the strategy of transferring agricultural water uses is the main task of the project in this year. In the next two years, the drought early warning and risk management strategies will be built with combining all data of demand and supply from other sub-projects.application/pdf1502271 bytesapplication/pdfzh-TW國立臺灣大學生物環境系統工程學系暨研究所氣候預報乾旱預警風險管理Climate ForecastDroughtEarly WarningRisk Management[SDGs]SDG6[SDGs]SDG13reporthttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/10798/1/932625Z002016.pdf