2008-04-182024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/684080摘要：颱風和梅雨所帶來的豪大雨常導致河川中下游嚴重水患，對人民的生命財產影響甚鉅。為減少受災程度，常需提前做好各項防救災準備工作；因此，淹水災害的準確預警為防救災工作之重要環節。淹水災害預警和應變有賴準確的定量降雨預報，然而，目前氣象界的定量降雨預報技術，尚未特別配合淹水預警、應變之需求。本計畫之目的在配合水利署災害預警、應變作業之需求，發展颱風及梅雨季流域集水區定量降雨預報技術，並提供專業氣象資訊，供水利署參考。全程計畫預計三年完成，本年為第一年計畫。 　　在本年計畫中，將參考目前國內之颱風降雨氣候統計法，發展可根據颱風特徵即時調整預報雨量之颱風降雨模式，並根據中央氣象局所預報的颱風路徑，將其應用於流域集水區的降雨預報，以降低雨量預報誤差。其次，在梅雨季鋒面影響發生豪大雨及颱風影響台灣期間，將提供水利署未來天氣變化（尤其是降雨）加值研判資訊及氣象資訊專業諮詢，以作為災害應變作業之參考。此外，本計畫並於梅雨季前及颱風季後，針對水利署防災作業人員作業上的氣象資訊需求，提供氣象知識和豪雨研判分析講習。期望透過此計畫，協助水利署減少水災預警的不確定性，提昇災害應變作業之成效。<br> Abstract: The heavy rainfall induced by Mei-yu fronts and typhoons often causes flood downstream which posts great threats to human life and properties. To reduce the damages caused by the flood, considerable precautions have to be taken in advance and the accurate flood warning is the very first step. The accuracy of flood warning relies on the accurate quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). Unfortunately, the QPF researches conducted by the meteorological community during the past years do not really meet the need of the flood warning and emergency response operation. The purpose of this project is to develop the QPF technique for watersheds and to provide value-added meteorological information during typhoon and Mei-yu seasons to support the need of Water Resource Bureau during the flood warning and emergency response phase. The whole project will be finished in three years and this is the year of the project. 　　In this year, a typhoon rainfall model which is based on the typhoon rainfall climatology will be developed. This model will have an adjustment scheme according to the characteristics of individual typhoon to provide more accurate rainfall estimate for each watershed using CWB forecasted typhoon track. Besides, value-added meteorological analyses especially the rainfall tendency will be provided during the Mei-yu and typhoon periods. Training courses will be provided before the Mei-yu season and after the typhoon season to help WRA personnel to enhance their meteorological knowledge related to the flood warning and emergency response operation. By reducing the uncertainty of flood warning, we hope to enhance the efficiency of the emergency response operation.梅雨颱風定量降雨預報流域集水區氣候統計法Mei-yuTyphoonQPFwatershedclimatology