2010-04-142024-05-14https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/660169摘要：台灣地區降雨極不均勻，對水的需求逐年增加，復加氣候變遷導致水文及氣象條件產生變化，降雨時機與強度跟以往有明顯差異，導致近年用水量時常有不足的情況發生。農業用水所佔比例高，而其生產產值無法與工業用水相比擬，因此乾旱期間用水不足時，往往向農業尋求調整支援，近年北台灣頻繁面臨缺水問題，多以停灌休耕方式解決用水不足的窘境，因此，為確保水資源永續利用機能，並維持農業永續經營與發展目標，將深入探討氣候變遷情況下桃園地區農業灌溉配水因應策略，針對一期作停灌休耕時機與範圍加以研議，期能建置一智慧型水庫決策支援系統，降低停灌休耕所帶來的風險與損失。<br> Abstract: Rainfalls in Taiwan are temporally and spatially non-uniform. The constant population growth and the dramatic economic development have resulted in a tremendous demand for natural resources, especially water. Climate change affects the variations of hydrology and meteorology, so the timing and the intensity of rainfalls are very different from previous situations. It causes water shortages in recent years. The ratio of agricultural water consumption is high, but agricultural value is less than industrial value. Therefore, the reallocation for water supply to industries during dry seasons is arranged from water reservation due to fallows. In recent years, the government frequently faces the problems of water shortages in northern Taiwan and thus makes the fields lie fallow to solve the awkward situation of water shortages. In order to ensure the sustainable use and management of water resources, we deeply discuss the strategy of irrigation water distribution in Taoyuan under the effects of climate change. We assess the optimal timing and area for fallowing especially in the first paddy season and expect to build an intelligent decision support system for water-supply operation of reservoirs. Finally, we will reduce the risk and the loss of agricultural fallows.水庫操作模糊規劃理論遺傳演算法休耕Reservoir OperationFuzzy ProgrammingGenetic Algorithmfallow