JEN-HAU CHENYEN-CHING CHENTsai M.-K.JENG-MIN CHIOUWEN-CHUNG LEETsao C.-K.KEH-SUNG TSAIWEI-CHU CHIE2020-11-192020-11-1920170929-6646https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85012919747&doi=10.1016%2fj.jfma.2017.01.003&partnerID=40&md5=8f2ccb19497fce75beb1ed85de2a6e15https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/521843Background/purpose Osteoporosis has been linked to an increased fracture risk and subsequent mortality in the later life. Previous prediction models have focused on osteoporosis in postmenopausal women; however, a prediction tool for osteopenia is needed. Our objective was to establish a prediction model for osteopenia risk in women aged 40–55 years. Methods This was a cross-sectional study. A total of 1350 Taiwanese women aged 40–55 years were recruited from a health checkup center from 2009 to 2010. The main outcome measure was osteopenia (?1 ? bone mineral density T-score > ?2.5). Results The Osteoporosis Preclinical Assessment Tool (OPAT) developed in this study was based on variables with biological importance to osteopenia and variables that remained significant (p < 0.05) in the multivariable analysis, which include age, menopausal status, weight, and alkaline phosphatase level. The OPAT has a total score that ranges from 0 to 7, and categorizes women into high-, moderate-, and low-risk groups. The predictive ability of the OPAT (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.77) was significantly better than that of the Osteoporosis Self-assessment Tool for Asians (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.69). The inclusion of serum total alkaline phosphatase level in the model, which is easy to obtain from routine health checkups, significantly enhanced the sensitivity (McNemar test, p = 0.004) for detecting osteopenia in women aged 40–55 years. Conclusion Our findings provide an important tool for identifying women at risk of osteoporosis at the preclinical phase. ? 2017English[SDGs]SDG3[SDGs]SDG5alkaline phosphatase; adult; age; alkaline phosphatase blood level; Article; body weight; bone density; cross-sectional study; female; high risk population; human; low risk population; major clinical study; osteopenia; outcome assessment; postmenopause; prediction; premenopause; risk assessment; screening; Taiwanese; bone density; metabolic bone disease; middle aged; multivariate analysis; receiver operating characteristic; risk factor; self evaluation; statistical model; Taiwan; Adult; Bone Density; Bone Diseases, Metabolic; Cross-Sectional Studies; Female; Humans; Logistic Models; Middle Aged; Multivariate Analysis; Risk Factors; ROC Curve; Self-Assessment; Taiwanjournal article10.1016/j.jfma.2017.01.003282154102-s2.0-85012919747