2010-10-012024-05-18https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/701586摘要：本研究將與大陸中國氣象局上海颱風研究所合作，期透過雙方整合分工、相互討論，以了解台灣與海峽對岸地形對颱風路徑、結構、強度與風雨分布之影響本計畫包括觀測分析與理論模擬兩部分，主要分五大子題: (1)結構異常變化的觀測研究：雙方各進雷達觀測分析，台灣地區進行飛機投落送探測分析，再由兩岸進行整合分析。2.風雨分佈異常變化機理研究：進行暴雨及大風分佈之研究。3.路徑異常變化機理研究：由本計畫進行颱風影響台灣前路徑異常變化機理研究，上海颱風研究所進行颱風影響台灣後路徑異常變化機理研究。4.颱風內核動力理論：由本計畫進行理論推導，上海颱風研究所進行資料驗證。5.預報關鍵技術進行超系集預報：參與模式包括國內作業使用之NFS(Liou et al. 2008; Hsiao et al. 2008)和WRF與大陸GRAPES-TCM和 STIM，先分別分析個別模式之特性，再進行超級集合預報發展。<br> Abstract: The project aims to research the multiscale dynamical mechanism of the variability of typhoon track and intensity in vicinity of Taiwan Strait through the cooperation with Shang-Hai Typhoon Institute of China Metrological Administration. With robust theory analysis and intensive and modern observation, we aim to more understand the effect terrain and Taiwan Strait on the track, structure and precipitation distribution of typhoon in order to improve the forecasting ability. This project is divided in two parts: theoretical simulation and observation data gathering and analysis. It includes 5 important tasks: (1) the observation of typhoon structure variance, (2) the mechanism of the variance of rain distribution, (3) the mechanism of the variance of the typhoon track, (4) the dynamical theory of typhoon inner core, (5) the improvement of super ensemble forecasting.