2006-03-012024-05-14https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/660780摘要：本年度研究主要研究目的為「產業損害預警模型」及其資料庫之維護與更新，針對HS六位碼分類進口產品、大陸進口產品及特別敏感之農工產品(不限於HS六位碼分類商品，亦包含八位碼及十位碼分類產品)予以監測，並運用時間序列的趨勢法分析，定期篩選出最近三個月進口數量異常及進口價格異常下跌之項目，參酌該些項目國內產業相關資料，分析產業受損輕重程度並分別以燈號顯示，提出預警結果。<br> Abstract: In order to improve the forecasting capabilities of trade relief related macro pre-warning model, the purpose of this research is to maintain and update its model and data base. By use of time-series forecasting method, we will monitor the prices and quantities of all imports with HS code of 6 digit, imports from China and those sensitive agricultural and manufacture goods. Moreover, those imports with significant fluctuations in prices and quantities will be picked out and analyzed with industrial data. Possible integration of both macro and micro models will be explored in this study. Concluding remarks and suggestions for future research directions will be provided.產業損害貿易救濟Trade remediesdump