2005-08-012024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/688842摘要：本計畫為“颱風臨台路徑與侵台風雨預報技術發展暨預報實驗”整合計畫之第七子計畫。計畫長期目標為針對由台灣南方北上侵台的颱風，分析其伴隨降雨特徵，並針對其中較特殊之個案（如2001年之桃芝颱風，2004年之敏督利颱風等），透過MM5（或WRF）模擬與結果之分析，探討導致其特殊降雨之物理機制。最後則綜合分析與模擬結果，對特徵較明確者，建立概念模式並發展預報指引，以支援預報實驗之需求。初期計畫預計兩年完成，本計畫為第二年計畫。 在第一年計畫中已分析北上侵台颱風之降水分佈，並評估颱風降雨氣候模式的適用性。其次，針對具特殊降雨特徵的桃芝颱風（2001），模擬其登陸過程。結果顯示，模式可大致合理模擬颱風侵台前後的路徑特徵與大致降雨分佈；然而，模式中的降雨量不到觀測值的一半（部份原因為模式颱風移速較快）。因此，在本年計畫中將繼續改進桃芝之模擬，主要為考慮Chen and Liu（2004）所發展的雲微物理模式，將其應用於MM5中（Cheng et al., 2004）以改進降雨之模擬結果。其次，本計畫亦將針對敏督利颱風（2004）進行相同的分析，並探討颱風離台後引進強盛西南氣流而導致豪雨的過<br> Abstract: This is the seventh sub-project of the mission-oriented project “The development of forecast techniques and forecast experiment for typhoon approaching or invading Taiwan”. The long-term purpose of this sub-project is to analyze the rainfall distribution associated with typhoons that approached Taiwan from the south. Some typhoons with special features (such as Toraji in 2001 and Mindulle in 2004) will be simulated using MM5 (or WRF) to study the physical mechanisms leading to these special features. Finally, the results will be synthesized to develop conceptual model for those typhoons well-defined features. The forecast guidance will be developed to support the need of the forecast experiment. The first phase of this project will take two years to complete and this is the second year of the project. In the first year of the project, the rainfall distributions associated with typhoons approaching Taiwan from the south have been analyzed. The applicability of typhoon rainfall climatology model to estimate the rainfall of these typhoons has been evaluated. Next, numerical simulation of Typhoon Toraji (2004) during its landfall on Taiwan has been performed. Results show that the model can simulate reasonably well the track and rainfall distribution of Toraji. However, the model rainfall amount is less than half of the observation (part of the reasons is that the model typhoon moves too fast). Therefore, we will try to improve the model simulation in this year’s research. The cloud microphysical processes developed by Chen and Liu (2004) will be incorporated in MM5 (Cheng et al., 2004) to provide better rainfall simulation. In addition, similar analyses for Typhoon Mindulle (2004) will be taken to study the process leading to the torrential rain associated with the strong southwesterly floes occurred after typhoon period. Finally, results from data analyses and model simulation will be summarized and synthesized to develop the forecast guidances for these types of typhoons.颱風颱風登陸地形影響數值模擬概念模式typhoontyphoon landfalltopographical effectnumerical simulationconceptual model