2006-08-012024-05-18https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/702290摘要：本研究擬透過颱風數值模擬、資料驗證及動力分析，以瞭解颱風移動、發展、降雨、強度與眼牆變化及與地形/海洋及環境交互作用之動力過程與物理機制；另外亦透過衛星及GPS Dropsonde資料同化方法改進模式模擬颱風能力，進而增進颱風物理過程及敏感度之瞭解，並作為策略性觀測之依據。總之，本研究主要是以颱風之動力探討，模擬預報改進及四維同化研究為主軸，希望透過一系列的研究工作，一方面深入探索颱風學理，一方面則應用學術成果，有效改善颱風預報。寄望對於科學本質及社會民生皆能有具體貢獻與回饋。主要研究重點如下： （1）透過颱風數值模擬及資料驗證及動力分析，瞭解颱風移動、強度演變、降雨、Vortex-Rossby waves、眼牆變化及與地形/海洋、環境和其他渦旋交互作用之動力過程與物理機制(Wu 2001; Wu et al. 2002, 2003, 2004)。 （2）衛星及Dropsonde資料之同化分析及影響評估( Aberson and Franklin 1999)。透過此計畫之執行，瞭解颱風觀測之重點及敏感區域所在，進而發展及提供有效之策略性颱風觀測理論基礎，並瞭解特殊觀測資料之可能影響，以期改進颱風預報。 （3）颱風與海氣交互作用之數值模擬探討。探討海表面溫度及海洋混合層結構（如warm core eddy）對於颱風強度之影響機制（Lin et al. 2002）。此部分研究將與海科中心林依依博士所提衛星資料分析研究相互配合。 <br> Abstract: The objectives of this research are to understand the physical mechanisms controlling the movement and development of typhoons, rainfall, intensity and eyewall evolution, as well as their interactions with the Taiwan terrain, the ocean, the environment and other vortices, through the model simulation, observational verification, and the dynamical analyses. Data assimilation will also be used to investigate the role of satellite/remote-sensing data and the GPS dropsonde data on typhoons. Targeted observation strategy will also be studied to evaluate the sensitive areas to the dropsonde observations for improving typhoon track prediction. We believe that our understanding on the academic problems related to typhoon dynamics and typhoon-topography interaction can be improved through this study. In addition, this work may also be helpful for operational typhoon forecasts in Taiwan. The key research foci are: 1.Numerical simulation and dynamic analysis to investigate the physical mechanisms controlling the movement, development of typhoons, rainfall, intensity and eyewall evolution, as well as their interactions with the Taiwan terrain, the environment and other vortices. 2.Assimilation of the satellite data and GPS dropsonde data, and investigation of the targeted observation strategy and their impact on the typhoon prediction. 3.Evaluation of the role of SST and the structure of the ocean mixed layer (warm core eddy) on typhoon-ocean interactions based on a coupled model.關鍵詞颱風台灣地形颱風數值模擬資料同化眼牆變化GPS Dropsonde海洋混合層策略性觀測TyphoonTaiwan topographysimulation and data assimilationeyewall evolutionGPS dropsondeocean mixed layertargeted observation strategy