徐世勳臺灣大學：農業經濟學研究所陳映君Chen, Ying-ChunYing-ChunChen2007-11-282018-06-292007-11-282018-06-292005http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/59062This paper provides a thorough examination of the ongoing trade pattern among Taiwan, Korea, Japan and China. We observed trade among these four countries pair-wisely and segregate trade pattern into inter-industry trade and two-way trade, or intra-industry trade (IIT). Further efforts are made by disentangling such trade into horizontal IIT (HIIT) and vertical IIT (VIIT). The results show that although one-way trade still dominates most trade types among these four countries, IIT is growing in importance. Additionally, we adopted a multi-sector computable general equilibrium model to simulate the potential impacts on Taiwan’s economy if Korea, Japan, and China form a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Taiwan being left out. Considering Taiwan's response to Japan-Korea-China FTA, the simulation of direct sailing between Taiwan and China is also implemented. As for the simulation, we use the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model and its newly released version 6.0 database. Simulation results show that the impacts of a FTA on GDP and welfare of member countries are generally positive, while the impacts on non-members are negative. In the case of Taiwan, the reaction of direct sailing somewhat increases GDP and welfare of Taiwan comparing to Taiwan’s situation in scenario 1 although GDP and welfare are still negative.Table of Contents II List of Tables III List of Figures IV 1. Introduction 1 2. Conceptual framework for the intra-industry trade 4 2.1 The traditional trade theory 4 2.2 Literature review of intra-industry trade 6 2.3 Horizontal and vertical product differentiation in intra-industry trade 8 2.4 Horizontal intra-industry trade and vertical intra-industry trade 13 3. Developments of multilateral trade among Taiwan, Korea, Japan, and China 18 4. Measurement of Intra-Industry Trade 22 4.1 The threshold decomposition method 22 4.2 Comparison of changing trade patterns among Korea, Japan, Taiwan and China 24 5. GTAP analysis of impacts of FTA among countries in East Asia 29 5.1 FTA and East Asia 29 5.2 The structure of GTAP model 31 5.3 Aggregation strategy 34 5.4 Experimental design 35 5.5 Simulation results 37 6. Conclusions 42 Reference 44571008 bytesapplication/pdfen-US產業內貿易自由貿易協定可計算一般均衡全球貿易分析模型Intra-industry tradethreshold decomposition methodfree trade agreementcomputable general equilibriumGlobal Trade Analysis Project(GTAP)thesishttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/59062/1/ntu-94-R92627010-1.pdf